Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 211655
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

With our best chance at rain having by past our section of the
country Saturday, rest of the forecast is looking rather pleasant
and mostly dry. Pacific surface high will dominate the weather
through the first half of the coming work week as a broad upper
level ridge slowly transits the Nation over the next 7 days. This
will keep temperatures ranging around seasonally normal values
through next weekend. Big question will be cloud cover and the
potential for rain which might impact the forecast this coming week.

Only issue to watch, and consequently forecast, this coming week
will be the potential for some storms. As the ridge transits the
Nation this week the current closed circulation slowly spinning its
way onshore across the California coast will get swept into the
Plains States. However, most of the operational and ensemble models
advertise that this circulation will detach from the flow with the
help of the persistent surface ridge. This would leave a weakly
defined circulation over the Plains States resulting in
on-again-off-again storm chances. However, focus for these
associated POPs continues to be to our west, so have continued to
limit POPs to far western Missouri and eastern Kansas for Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Chance POPs try to spread a little farther
east Wednesday night into Thursday as the detached circulation gets
swept back up by westerlies again, but potential for rain is looking
rather iffy as moisture will be a bit limited through the week
thanks to the influence of the Pacific surface ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR conds with mainly clr skies are expected thru the TAF period. The
only minor concern for aviators will be the gusty NNW winds this
afternoon to 20kts. However, winds will subside this evening becmg lgt
and vrb as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...73






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