Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






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