Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 162330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CST MON JAN 16 2017

A well-earned and prolonged January thaw is expected through most of
the forecast period with temperatures expected to be Spring-like.
This afternoon, both Winter and Spring conditions are evident across
the CWA as a warm front bisects the CWA. Temperatures south of the
warm front have risen into the mid 50s to lower 60s with
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s north. The system that
brought the weekend rain and freezing rain is still to west of us in
the formed of the stacked low across east central Kansas. This low
will move into northwestern Missouri this evening and through
northern Missouri tonight bringing the likely chance for rain across
northern Missouri. There will also be the potential for areas of fog
formation with the recent wet condition as well as drizzle. Rain
will have exited the area by tomorrow morning as the system finally
moves of to the east leaving the area in northwest flow aloft. This
will lead to near normal temperatures tomorrow will highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s. By Wednesday, split let flow across the CONUS will
keep the northern jet well north of the area with the southern jet
remaining along the southern tier states. This will leave the
central CONUS under upper level ridging. This ridging and the onset
of WAA will allow high temperatures to rise into the mid 40s to
lower 50s. This regime continues on Thursday with high rising into
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday night into Friday will be the next chance for precipitation
however, it will only be a slight chance. Thursday night into Friday
a upper level disturbance will ride up the Mississippi River Valley
into the Ohio River Valley. The eastern portion CWA may experience
wrap around moisture from this disturbance. The precipitation will
be in the form of rain however as highs on Friday will continue to
be in the 50s. Saturday will stay warm but perhaps a few degrees
cooler as clouds increase during the day. Highs Saturday will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. The best chance for precipitation beyond
tonight will come in the Saturday night to Sunday timeframe as a
upper level trough ejects out from the southwestern CONUS into the
central Plains. Precipitation again will be in the form of rain as
highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST MON JAN 16 2017

Current VFR conditions in the KC metro should be short-lived before
upstream MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions settle into the area later this
evening and overnight. Showers should conclude in the next few hours
as the surface low departs. Gradually improving conditions, possibly
back to MVFR, late morning into early afternoon Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ102.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Blair


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