Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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124
FXUS63 KEAX 191107
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
607 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

The primary weather concern this week continues to be the heat
building into the region with a rather stout upper ridge taking
control. Models have been very consistent and in excellent agreement
of a ~598dam dome settling in over the center of the country for much
of this week, which is already being analyzed on SPC`s 00Z 500mb upper-
air analysis. With ridging aloft gripping the bulk of the forecast
area, it`ll be hard-pressed to get any precip for much of this week.
That said, a large complex of thunderstorms currently tracking across
central NE may very well clip northern MO as it rides along the
ridge`s periphery. While little confidence exists in storms
developing this afternoon for portions of NE MO, have slight chance
PoPs in there as high-res models have a general agreement of some
activity in the vicinity later this afternoon. The placement of the
ridge`s periphery is key in determining where storms will track.

It isn`t until this upcoming weekend that the door for precip
chances looks to open back up for the forecast area at large. The
well-advertised ridge breaks its grip and heights drop back off as
shortwaves ripple on through again. However, model divergence becomes
increasingly evident by the end of this forecast period, leaving
uncertainty in the details of precip chances.

As for temperatures, there really is little to no question as to
whether or not it`s going to be hot. It will be. Widespread 90s for
highs are expected each day this week with highs flirting with the
century mark before the week`s end. Thursday and Friday look to be
the hottest days of the week. As the aforementioned breakdown of the
upper ridge commences over the weekend, look for temps to come back
down a bit but current indications of any sort of "cooloff" doesn`t
look to arrive until early next week with highs looking to be closer
toward normal for mid-summer, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout this TAF period.
Mid-level cloud deck is approaching eastern KS/western MO early this
morning but is expected to generally clear the area terminals by
midday. Any thunderstorm activity associated with this complex is
anticipated to stay north of STJ. Southerly winds will dominate.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ028>031-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-032-033.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg



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