Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 190839
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
339 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Issued at 339 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows us a modest trough
moving through the mountainous west on its way towards the Plains
States. This trough will amplify as it shifts into the Plains today
as it phases with a low circulation across Canada allowing a couple
of events to unfold over the next 48 hours. One, expect
thunderstorms across southern Missouri as the low level jet gets
going across a cold front stalled out; and two, a quick cool down in
temperatures for a couple of days --though not quite cool enough to
warrant any frost concerns--.
For the rest of the work week...We expect thunderstorms to bubble up
across southern Missouri thanks to the interactions between the
trough and stalled front later today. Currently, expectations are
that a few storms could wander as far north as central Missouri
during the late afternoon into the evening hours. However, any
stormy activity during the evening and overnight periods will sink
south as the trough moves into the Plains and deepens. Thus, the
chances for rain in our area for today are rather small. The
amplifying trough will then help push the temperatures down for
Thursday, making it feel a bit more fall like with highs in the 60s
for at least one day. However, the self same trough that will bring
the cool air will also take it away as the trough quickly moves east
allowing a ridge to expand east into the Plains, lifting
temperatures back above normal for Friday and the weekend.
Otherwise, due to the follow on ridge moving in we are expecting the
above normal temperatures to run into the middle of next week.
Additionally, next chance for widespread rain does not look to
arrive until the middle to late portions of next week.
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016
Fog is beginning to be reported in portions of southern IA, central
MO, and eastern KS as dewpoint depressions lessen and winds slacken.
However, direct impacts to terminals still appears to be relatively
low as the fog is developing in prone locations and is so far not
indicating to be a more widespread issue. Have left out mention in
three of the four terminal TAFs, leaving it in for just STJ. One of
the limiting factors for more significant fog impacts to STJ is the
cloud cover currently over SE NE, NE KS, and into IA that could pass
through the STJ area by the early morning hours. Should more obs and
indications come in over the next couple of hours that STJ may have
fog to contend with, AMDs may be necessary.
As for other aviation impacts, VFR conditions are looking to prevail
throughout the rest of the TAF period at all four terminals.
Precipitation late Wednesday is still expected to stay south and
east of the area terminals.