Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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424
FXUS63 KEAX 220414
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1014 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

Light rain is spreading northeast across Oklahoma and southern KS
this afternoon in response to weak ascent ahead of an upper wave
over west Texas. Most of the synoptic-scale lift associated with
this feature will stay to the south of the area overnight so that
the highest rain chances will stay across southern into eastern
Missouri. However, a weak elevated boundary will lift north
toward the KC- Kirksville corridor later this evening and should
be enough to produce a few light showers overnight. Any
precipitation that makes it this far north will have to battle a
dry layer between 700 and 900 hPa, so any rain should be fairly
light with only a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall at most.

Light winds could favor a few areas of fog later this evening
especially north of the Missouri River where skies will remain
clear longer. Winds will be quick to become northerly as this
system passes to our south overnight and will steadily increase
through the morning Sunday. This cold air advection pattern will
result in a very shallow inversion over northern MO with the
potential for another round of overnight fog. However, given the
increasing winds, it`s very possible that this moisture will turn
into a very low cloud deck instead. Right now it doesn`t look like
fog should be as widespread as the past two nights but it`s worth
keeping an eye on.

The weather pattern will become fairly quiet through Tuesday with
broad upper level ridging building into the Plains. This will keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler on Monday (but still well above
average) then returning into the 50s for much of the area on
Tuesday. Low pressure tracking to the north of the area Tuesday
night could produce a few light showers, possibly even a few snow
showers Wednesday and Wednesday night as cooler air filters in.
Any precipitation amounts during this period would be very light
and snow accumulation isn`t expected. Cooler air behind this
system will keep temperatures close to average for the remainder
of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1010 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

Light rain persists this evening across the area, with a fairly
dry layer of air between the surface and 6000 feet, where ceilings
currently reside. This dry layer is making it difficult for large
amounts of rain to make it to the surface, thus VSBY has been VFR
throughout the spatial and temporal aspect of these showers.
Expect that to remain the trend through the overnight hours, with
gradual tapering off of the rain by early to mid morning as more
dry air works into the atmosphere. The uncertainty regarding the
fog is still present. There are some models still hinting at some
fog development overnight, but with stratus in the area as well as
the light rain those factors lessen the chances for widespread fog
to develop. Should fog develop it would be more likely in far
northern Missouri where stratus hasn`t moved in yet. This could
include KSTJ or KMCI, but with stratus over those terminals it
doesn`t look likely. Will continue to monitor those trends
through the night and amend as needed. Late in the forecast period
stratus is hinted at strongly as the cooler air moves into the
area. have introduced MVFR CIGS for a few hours at the end of the
forecast period, with maybe some clearing there after. More fog
could be on the way should the stratus clear out tomorrow night,
but that time period is outside of this 24 hour forecast cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Leighton



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