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000
FXUS63 KEAX 102319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Spring-like weather has overspread much of the forecast area today,
with temperatures warming into the 60s to lower 70s as of early
afternoon. With strong mixing, dew points have remained steady or
slightly fallen today, resulting in relative humidity values falling
below 25 percent. Southwesterly wind speeds have remained breezy
over the southern quarter of the forecast area, and likewise red
flag warning conditions will persist through the remainder of the
afternoon. Lows tonight will remain warm with persistent southerly
winds and increasing surface moisture, with lows in the 40s.

Little change in forecast thinking for Tuesday as a piece of an
upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest merges with a
shortwave trough dropping into the Northern Plains. Surface low
pressure will move from central Kansas at sunrise Tuesday to
southwest Missouri by Tuesday evening. A warm front will stretch
eastward from the low, eventually residing across northern Missouri
by late morning Tuesday. Much of the CWA will remain in the warm
sector through the afternoon, with a continued transport of warm and
moist air. Highs on Tuesday will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s in
most locations, with the far northern CWA remaining in the 50s as a
frontal boundary slides southward over the area. Moisture will also
increase within the warm sector upon southerly winds, with dew points
reaching the middle 40s to the lower 50s. While the majority of any
precipitation is expected to be post-frontal, there is a slight
chance for shallow convection to develop late Tuesday afternoon
along the surface boundary as it drops through the southern portions
of the forecast area. With strong upper dynamics, increasing
moisture, and some elevated instability with MU CAPE around 300-500
J/KG, a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms may evolve mainly
south of the Missouri River.

By Tuesday evening, the cold front will clear the CWA and colder air
will begin to advect into the region. Initial post-frontal
precipitation is expected to be all rain as a H8 warm nose and above
freezing air temperatures remain in place. With time, the warm nose
cools and with increasing ascent/vertical moisture saturation, ice
becomes introduced in the column. This window for potential snowfall
is fairly short before drier air advects into the area, generally
between 03-08Z north of the Missouri River and 06-10Z south of the
river. Currently, the highest probability of snowfall occurrence and
light accumulation exists north of the Missouri River. Another
challenge to any potential accumulation will be surface air
temperatures remaining near freezing during the snowfall, with
further uncertainty to whether the rate/persistence of snow can
overcome recent warm surfaces. Generally, less than one-half inch of
snowfall is expected, and much of that may occur on grassy surfaces.
Overall, no widespread impacts are expected from this system. In
addition to precipitation concerns, gusty northerly winds are
expected as a tightening pressure gradient moves into the region.
Wind speeds are currently forecast just under advisory criteria, but
the increase in wind will be relatively abrupt compared to earlier
in the day with much lighter wind speeds.

Cooler weather is expected on Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the region. Highs on Wednesday will only warm into the
upper 30s to upper 40s under mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will return for Thursday
through Saturday as zonal flow develops across the region. A clipper
system will drive a fairly weak back-door cold front through the
forecast area on Friday night, but should only impact temperatures
in the northeast corner of the CWA for Saturday. On Sunday, the EC
and the 06z GFS bring a stronger shortwave trough straight into the
central Plains; however, poor agreement with the 12z GFS brings some
uncertainty into the solution. Have cut back PoPs to top out around
30% Saturday night, and kept any rain/snow mix confined to the
northern half of the forecast area. Fairly significant temperature
falls could be associated with Sunday`s system should it materialize
as forecast by the EC, but for now have just kept the blended, more
moderate downward trend in temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

FROPA associated with a strong cold front will cause a dramatic wind
shift late in the forecast period. Expect south/southwest winds
through the next several hours, then around 20z strong north winds
will move into the terminals. Expect the winds to be in the 20 to 30
kt range, however forecast soundings indicate the possibility for
some 40+ knot winds to mix to the surface creating wind gusts in the
30 to 40 kt range. Light rain and snow will likely move into the
terminals slightly after this particular forecast period. Will likely
introduce some showery activity for the terminals in the 06z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton