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000
FXUS63 KEAX 061115
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
515 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

Stratus is expected to linger into the morning hours today as a weak
surface ridge moves through the area. Winds really are not expected
to turn to the southwest until afternoon, and this could have a
slight impact on today`s temperatures. Once the cloud cover does
dissipate, temperatures should quickly climb into the 40s, and
perhaps a few 50s over the southern CWA.

Friday:  Signs still point to above normal temperatures on Friday as
deep southwesterly flow brings +8 to +10C air northeast.  A weak
frontal boundary stretched across northwest Missouri should have
minimal and temperatures will climb into the 50s for most locations
and 60s in central Missouri.

Friday night-Saturday:  Latest guidance continues to indicate that
mid-lvl troughing will swing through the central CONUS Friday night
pushing the aforementioned frontal boundary through the CWA by
Saturday morning.  Increasing mid-lvl frontogenesis will produce
several bands of light precipitation, however some question marks
exist regarding the quality of moisture with the system.  Could see
light snow/rain showers along the front, with soundings indicating a
brief window for drizzle/freezing drizzle or even light snow through
daybreak Saturday.  The good news is that Saturday continues to look
on the cool but dry side as high pressure moves southeast.

Sunday-Monday:  A substantial warmup is on it`s way for Sunday and
especially on Monday as ridging builds over the Rockies.  Warm air
will spread eastward on Sunday as winds turn to the southwest.
Soundings indicate that afternoon temperatures should climb into the
lower 50s.  The warmest day of the forecast will fall on Monday as
the thermal ridge moves overhead.  Have bumped up overnight low
temperatures Sunday night as the boundary layer should remain fairly
mixed.  Temperatures on Monday have the potential to soar into the
60s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: All good things must come to an end (at least
temporarily), and the mid-level pattern again shifts to slightly
cooler temperatures into the middle of the week. A cold front will
settle into the area on Tuesday, but residual warm air should push
readings into the 50s once again.  By Wednesday and Thursday
mid-level troughing will swing through the region with increasing
precipitation chances and perhaps a bit of wintry weather moving
into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 510 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MVFR to IFR stratus off to the west, north and northeast of the
terminals this morning. In the local vicinity, we`re still holding
onto a 3500 ft deck, and light fog. Currently anticipating this deck
to slowly dissolve after daybreak and by mid-morning. Couldn`t rule
out a very brief fall to MVFR ceilings at STJ this morning.

Once stratus dissolves, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder
of the day with a southeast wind prevailing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux