Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KEAX 240904

404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-



AVIATION...Laflin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.