801
FXUS63 KEAX 270542
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging wind
  gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across NE
  Kansas and NW Missouri.

- Locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible this evening into
  late tonight.

- Hot and humid conditions continue through Sunday.

- Showers and storms likely for Sunday evening/night.

- Temperatures should cool a bit down toward seasonal normals
  (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Water vapor and 500 mb height analysis shows a shortwave trough
moving eastward across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a weak
surface cold front is moving eastward across parts of eastern NE
and northeast KS, with a surface low moving into southern MN.
With strong surface heating and dew points in the lower 70s, a
corridor of 4000-4500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed
across far NW Missouri and NE Kansas this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms have already initiated
across this area out ahead of the front, with these storms
moving to the east northeast. While shear is weak (only around
15 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear), steep low level lapse rates and
DCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg should support a damaging wind
threat this afternoon and early evening. As such, a severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM tonight for
portions of extreme NE Kansas into NW and northern Missouri. By
later this evening, a cluster or line/broken line of storms is
likely to develop along/near the front across far NW Missouri,
and move to the southeast through the late evening hours into
the early overnight hours. The main concern with this secondary
convective development will likely be the threat for moderate to
heavy rainfall, as PWATs are forecast to reach close to 2". The
12z HREF had probability matched means on the order of 1.5" to
2.5" across a decent swath of the CWA, with localized rainfall
amounts up to 4". Biggest concerns will be moderate/heavy
rainfall over the areas that received the 5+ inches of rain from
Monday night into Tuesday evening, as well as across the Kansas
City metro. Due to these reasons, went ahead and issued a flood
watch from 5 pm this afternoon through 3 am Friday morning for
much of the CWA as a precaution.

Hot and humid conditions continue tomorrow for most locations
(likely slightly cooler across northern and NE Missouri behind
the front), with afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
A few afternoon showers and storms may be possible again,
primarily south of Interstate 70. The 18z HRRR does suggest the
potential for robust convection to fire along a remnant outflow
boundary or differential heating boundary by early to mid
tomorrow afternoon across the KC metro, with wind gusts up to
40 mph and moderate rainfall possible, but we will see how
things evolve tonight into tomorrow morning. Hot and humid again
on Saturday, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees (best chance for 100+ degree heat index across
NW Missouri). While current grids show only slight chance
afternoon PoPs toward the Ozarks, some guidance (namely the
ECMWF) suggests higher precipitation chances.

Better chances for showers and storms, including some locally
moderate rainfall, arrives on Sunday evening/night as a low
amplitude trough moves across the northern Plains, amplifying as
it moves toward the Great Lakes, and sending a cold front toward
and through our CWA from the northwest. The front may stall out
across southern portions of the region as we head into Monday,
keeping rain chances in the forecast through Monday afternoon.
Cooler temperatures will come behind the front, with highs back
down toward seasonal normals (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A cluster of storms currently moving through the KSTJ, KMKC,
KMCI terminals will keep conditions varying from IFR to VFR for
the first few hours of the TAF period. Storms anticipated to
stay to the northeast of KIXD, but an outflow boundary may
briefly increase winds to 20-25 kts. A little after midnight,
winds out of the south weaken to around 5-7 kts. Another round
of storms possible this evening after 23Z. Some uncertainty
persists with location and timing of the storms, so went with
PROB30 group for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ020>024-
     028>031-037-038-043.
KS...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT early this morning for KSZ025-057-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Collier