Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170839

339 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Upper low is pushing to the east of St. Louis early this morning with
thick low clouds on the back side of this feature encompassing much
of northern Missouri. Believe these clouds will be stubborn to clear
out for much of the morning and early afternoon, particularly over
central into northeast Missouri given saturated grounds and higher
low-level humidity across these areas. As such temperatures were
nudged down a bit for these areas, with temperatures possibly
remaining in the 70s all day across the Kirksville-Moberly corridor.
This should prevent any significant destabilization over central
Missouri this afternoon, so precipitation chances were removed from
the forecast for all areas today.

A deeper upper wave will dig into the Upper Midwest tonight and
Monday sending a weak front into eastern Nebraska by Monday evening.
Highest precipitation chances Monday and Monday night will remain to
our north in closer proximity to the front and upper wave, however
several models are hinting at at a few weak mid-level impulses
tracking through the forecast area Monday morning and again Monday
night. Airmass should be fairly unstable by this time so one or more
rounds of convection are possible if these waves become organized
enough. Without any other significant forcing mechanism, any
thunderstorm chances will be closely tied to the timing and strength
of these impulses which is hard for models to resolve at this
time. Increasing capping may also keep storm chances limited as a
rather deep EML mixes in from the west Monday night. However, if
these factors do not significantly limit thunderstorm development,
there should be enough elevated instability and wind shear aloft for
few strong wind gusts Monday night particularly if the deep
inverted-V sounding in the NAM forecast verifies. Heavy rain does not
appear to be a significant threat at this time.

By Tuesday and Wednesday upper-level heights will begin to rise
across the Plains in the wake of Monday`s shortwave. This should
shift the storm track to the north of the forecast area through the
remainder of the work week, although a weak wave may bring a few
showers and storms to northern portions of the forecast area Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This ridging will also bring hotter temperatures
into the region with highs in the lower to middle 90s by the end of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MVFR low clouds across northern MO slowly dissipating as they rotate
west towards KSTJ/KMCI. May see a few hours of MVFR cigs at start of
the forecast. Otherwise, main theme will be fog forming. UPS fog and
LAMP output suggest dense fog potential at KSTJ. Given wet ground,
calm winds with clearing skies think this is a good set-up for it.
Fog expected to lift to an MVFR cig by mid morning before scattering
out by noon-time....then VFR conditions.




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