Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 050454
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Issued at 320 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Pattern across the USA today remains rather amplified, but also a
bit muddled as a deep trough across the western CONUS competes to
dominate the general flow aloft with a ridge over the East Coast that
has with it a couple of cutoff low spinning around under it. This
has left our section of the country caught between the two features.
Moisture from this cutoff low, slowly spinning east across the Deep
South, has pushed enough west today to force some low thick cloud
cover to the Kansas-Missouri state-line today. This helped keep
temperatures well below normal as temperatures under the cloud cover
struggle to reach 60 degrees.
Cloud cover from today does not look like it will go anywhere
tonight, and might even expand to finish covering the whole forecast
area later this evening. The cloud cover will take the edge off low
temperatures tonight, resulting in overnight lows in the 50s as
opposed to the 40s of the past several days. Otherwise, as the work
week progresses the trough to our west is expected to cutoff and then
slowly move east out of the Four Corners over the later half of the
week. This will provide the region with a warming trend over the next
several days as southerly winds return to the Lower Missouri River
Valley. Expect highs to climb back into the 70s for Tuesday with
scattered locations getting back to around 80 Wednesday.
Next chance for storms looks to still be waiting for a frontal
passage Thursday as the western cutoff low settles through the Four
Corners as an open wave trough shifts east through the Great Lakes.
Mid-range models are in decent agreement on the large scale features,
so confidence is slowly growing that next Thursday looks to be the
wet day next week. Severe potential is not looking good at this time
as the instability and shear look to be a little disconnected, though
available Gulf moisture looks sufficient for some heavy rain.
Lastly...temperatures behind the Thursdays cold front wont be that
cold as highs Friday are still expected to reach into the 60s with
70s look likely for next weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Widespread cloud cover will remain in place into Monday with ceilingsgenerally
between 1000 and 2000 feet, although there will be occasional breaks
above this level. Ceilings should lift above 2000 feet by Monday
afternoon, and into VFR Monday evening.