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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160851
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT SUN JUL 16 2017

Surface high pressure has moved off to the east, but the surface
pressure gradient along the western edge of the ridge is still
pretty weak, which will keep winds on Sunday pretty light. The
region is still under the influence of a large mid/upper level
ridge, which is still a bit to the west of the region. Surface trough
forming over the High Plains will keep a steady stream of
warm/moist southerly winds streaming into the area through the
rest of the weekend and into next week. The lack of any
appreciable trigger for storms, either at the surface or aloft,
will keep conditions dry for the next several days. Nonetheless
temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend and
throughout the upcoming week across the entire region as the
mid/upper ridge becomes more established over the Missouri River
Valley. GFS/EC operational runs at 00z indicate that by mid week
the mid level ridge will be centered over the local region, and
while there is some minor discrepancy regarding the strength of
the ridge, there is some decent confidence that the H5 heights
will approach 595 dm. GFS is a little stronger with the ridge,
indicating H5 heights in the 597 to 599 dm range, while the EC is
a little less aggressive with "only" 595 dm. Regardless of the
exact H5 pressure height, the upcoming week appears to be very
hot and muggy across the entire region. Expect highs to reach well
into the 90s starting Monday, with each day thereafter reaching
well above 90 degrees. The hottest days will likely be Wed/Thurs,
when daytime highs will approach 100 degrees (although likely
coming up a couple degrees short of the century mark). Dewpoints
will likely settle in around 70 to 73 degrees across the region,
which will combine with the high temperatures to bring heat
indices Tue-Sat above 100 degrees. Wed/Thurs will likely see Heat
Index values approach 105 to 110. Due to the expected prolonged
period of excessive heat have kept the Excessive Heat Watch going
for the Tue-Fri period. Given the expectations of the upcoming
pattern can definitely see a scenario where the current headlines
may need to expanded spatially and extended temporally.

By Sunday there are indications that the ridge may begin to
flatten out a bit as mid level flow increases across the northern
plains. This will bring some marginal relief from the heat to the
forecast area by the end of next weekend and perhaps the beginning
of next week. The next appreciable chance for rain will likely
come late next weekend or early next week as a boundary may sag
into the area providing some focus for precipitation. In the
meantime, expect generally hot and dry conditions to reign over
the forecast area, with some very negligible chances for isolated
storms through the upcoming week.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only high
level clouds moving through. Things have trended drier in the mid
levels so have removed diurnal CU. Winds will remain light through
the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...CDB