Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 181129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

A surface high continues to settle into the area today bringing in
slightly cooler temperatures from the north. Sunny skies and upper-
level ridging will keep highs above normal though today, with the
mid-50s to mid-60s expected. The high pressure will begin sliding to
the east tonight, while a surface low forms and approaches from the
Rockies. Winds will shift to the south-southeast, increasing low-
level moisture and WAA. In addition, an upper-level shortwave is
expected to move over the southern portion of the area early
tomorrow morning, providing an opportunity for rain. MU CAPE values
should range from 500-1000 J/kg so a few thunderstorms are possible
as well. No severe weather is expected with this activity. Despite
the cloud development Sunday, WAA will be strong enough for
temperatures to rise into the upper 70s in western MO/far eastern KS
and low to mid 60s in central MO.

Sunday evening through Monday morning the aforementioned surface
low and associated cold front will move through the forecast
area. In addition, an 850mb LLJ will strengthen as an upper level
shortwave moves through northeastern MO. With MUCAPE values around
1500 J/kg, thunderstorms should develop in north-central MO,
which is the same location as the nose of the LLJ. Storms will
move to the south only affecting the eastern border of the
forecast area. Some storms could be strong. As for temperatures,
they will cool to near-normal for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the
cold front as a surface high and upper level ridge move into the
Plains/Midwest.

Rain chances will continue Tuesday and Wednesday despite the high
pressure. An upper-level shortwave will round the top of the upper-
level high Tuesday providing a chance for rain showers for much of
the area. Another upper-level shortwave will do the same during the
day Wednesday. Wednesday night, a warm front will lift north into
our area, while the 850 mb LLJ begins to strengthen. This will bring
a chance for thunderstorms Thursday. Thursday night, an upper-level
trough will eject from the Rockies. As it gets closer to the MO/KS
border, it will become negatively tilted, pushing a strong cold
front through the area and producing organized convection. At this
time severe weather is possible with this system. The front and
storms should exit the area sometime late Friday/early Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

A surface high continues to settle into the area from the north.
This will keep skies clear and winds light today. Tonight, the
surface high will begin to slide off to the east. This, along with
a developing surface low to our west, will start to tighten the
pressure gradient and shift winds to the southeast. Low-level
moisture advection in the form of a cloud deck will move into the
entire area as well from the south. Ceilings should remain VFR
for this forecast period but will likely drop to MVFR in areas
south of HWY 36 and west of HWY 65 for a few hours shortly after
12Z Sunday. In addition, there is a chance of rain and a few
thunderstorms along/south of the MO River. The greatest chance for
this activity will be shortly after 12Z Sunday through 18Z Sunday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana



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