Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201129
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Fcst largely on track with respect to anticipated heat concerns
across the Lwr Missouri Vly this week. All inherited heat headlines
remain intact this morning...and see complete justification for
headlines running right through Saturday. Last night`s 00z Topeka
sounding showed 850 temps at 20C or so...and last model projections
show values increasing a degree or two each day before main thermal
ridge axis settles over the region by Friday in advance of a frontal
boundary sagging south through the upper Miss Rvr Vly. This feature
will act to compress the thermal ridge further south and east
over our area on Friday and based on this...the prevailing thought
between us and neighboring offices is that Friday will be the warmest
day of the week with the century mark being possible for some areas.
Thursday will still be warm of course but latest runs are really
highlighting Friday as being the warmest day of the week due to the
above reasoning. In addition...models continue to delay the
arrival of the aforementioned front this weekend...and based on
this...Saturday is looking to be very warm as well with middle to
upper 90s expected region-wide.

In terms of other wx impacts in addition to the heat...the GFS
continues to show diurnal thunderstorm development this afternoon for
areas east of Route 65. In this area...700 hPa temps will be just
short of 10C which may support an isolated storm or two this
afternoon...with forcing for ascent likely being supplied by a weak
passing shortwave. Deep-layered shear values look fairly weak and no
severe weather is anticipated at this time. Beyond this...the fcst
largely looks dry through Saturday before the next chance for
organized shower/storm develop arrives Saturday night and Sunday as
the previously mentioned front starts to descend upon the region.
This will mark the beginnings of an unsettled period as the front
stalls to our south and northwest flow develops aloft in response to
a developing ridge across the Great Basin. This will also allow for
a break in the excessive heat with near or slightly below normal
temperatures expected early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Lgt winds this
morning will strengthen from the southwest later today between 6-12
kts before weakening and backing slightly this evening. No major
aviation hazards expected.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Saturday for KSZ102.

     Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028>031-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-032-033.

     Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-032-033.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32


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