Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 270954
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Issued at 354 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Wintry precipitation continues to be the main concern today through
tonight, as a cold front departs to the southeast and light to
moderate rain now surging up from the southwest moves over
subfreezing surface and near-surface temperatures. Freezing rain
remains the most likely candidate for precipitation type due to the
stout warm nose centered around 850 hPa; however, quickly falling
temperatures around 1000 ft above the ground could allow rain to
partially or fully re-freeze before hitting the ground, which
introduces a potential for some sleet to mix in with the freezing
rain and potentially reduce ice accumulations. As a result, have
calculated ice accumulations to be a bit lower than the overall
QPF even in areas that will be below freezing throughout the
period, and general amounts are between a few hundredths near the KC
metro up to greater than a tenth of an inch of ice in east central
KS. Will stick with the freezing rain advisory in areas where
additional ice accumulation is expected since icing of roads and
other surfaces will be the main concern, but some more mixed
precipitation could sneak in at any time today.
Precipitation will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast as
the elevated front drifts to the southeast and upper forcing departs
to the northeast, but may linger near the stalled surface boundary
in central MO through Saturday. Temperatures will begin to warm as
flow becomes more southwesterly off the surface and surface cold air
advection decreases, hopefully ending the possibility of icing after
Saturday morning. The cut-off low that was left behind by our
current system will then lift out of the Southwest on Sunday and
into Monday, raising the potential for rain showers once again late
Saturday night through Tuesday. Blended model temperatures were a
little chilly Saturday night and did not want subfreezing temps
coincident with precipitation chances, so have raised lows above
model consensus on Saturday night.
Quieter conditions and gradually warming temperatures are expected
in the long-range forecast period after the upper low departs.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
the large band of mainly rain currently stretching from southeast
and east central KS through northeast MO will gradually shift east
overnight. As the rain ends subfreezing temperatures will slowly ooze
south. am expecting patchy freezing rain to affect east central KS
and northwest/west central MO overnight through Friday afternoon.
Good chance the freezing rain will increase in coverage Friday
morning over east central KS into west central MO.
Low end MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR expected over the region
overnight with a chance for them to become predominantly IFR by
Northerly winds have not been as strong or gusty this evening and
with the gradient relaxing on Friday they will likely weaken during
the afternoon and evening hours.
KS...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for KSZ025-057-
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ057-060.
MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MOZ012-013-
Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ038>040-043>046-053-054.