Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021734

1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Issued at 259 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The main concern in the short term will revolve around morning
thunderstorms and the possible affects on temperatures today. The
aforementioned thunderstorms have developed in an area of isentropic
ascent which will weaken through the mid morning hours with showers
diminishing. It is possible an additional half an inch to one inch
could fall across northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern
Kansas where these storms have developed. There will be additional
cloud cover that will exist over the northwestern CWA through the
morning hours however, skies should clear this afternoon and
temperatures should quickly warm. Highs across the CWA today will
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The remainder of the short term continues to look warm and dry as a
upper level ridge builds over the area. The ridge axis will reside
over the area on Thursday and Friday keeping conditions dry and
allowing highs to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ridge
will begin to weaken on Saturday as a upper level trough digs into
the west coast and moves into the intermountain west. Conditions,
however, should remain dry and warm on Saturday with highs remaining
in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Sunday, the upper level trough will move into the northern High
Plains forcing a cold front into the Plains. Warm air advection out
ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the upper 80s and lower
90s despite an increase in cloud cover. Sunday night the upper
trough moves into the northern Plains and the cold front will
approach the area with thunderstorms moving into the area from the
west. This marks the beginning of an active weather pattern across
the area. By Monday, the upper level trough lifts northeastward into
Canada allowing the cold front to stall across the CWA. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
middle of the work week as several upper level shortwaves move
through the area sparking convection along the stalled front.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south.




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