Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291118

618 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Issued at 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Short Term (Today through Tomorrow)

Main concern for today will be patchy fog around the area this
morning otherwise...tranquil weather will continue over the area
today with temperatures about ten degrees above normal. This is
thanks to upper level ridging moving into the area today in response
to an upper trough moving into the Central Rockies. High pressure
will also remain in control at the surface. As such, expect sunny
skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. Tonight high clouds will be in
the increase keeping lows in the upper 50s to the mid 60s across the
KC Metro. The upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains
by Tuesday morning sending a cold front into the Plains states. The
upper trough will continue to lift northward on Tuesday stalling the
cold front across the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop west of the area and may clip northwest Missouri by Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures will remain warm with increasing warm
southerly winds ahead to the front. Highs will again be in the low to
mid 80s.

Long term (Tomorrow night through Monday)

Tuesday night through Thursday night:

This period will be active with several rounds of thunderstorms with
severe storms possible Wednesday night. Tuesday night the
aforementioned stalled cold front across the Plains will continue to
be the focus for thunderstorm development across central Kansas as a
35-45kt SSWly LLJ will develop. These storms will spread into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri Tuesday night. On Wednesday, a
second upper level trough will dig into the eastern Rockies pushing
the cold front into northwest Missouri SWWD into central Kansas.
This will continue diurnal thunderstorm chances on the day
Wednesday. The upper trough will then dig into the western High
Plains Wednesday night. This will allow a surface low to strengthen
across eastern Kansas along the cold front. This cold will be the
focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday night as a 40-50kt SWly
LLJ jet gets ramped up. This will lead to the potential for large
hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado can not be ruled out in the
vicinity of the surface low. The front will move across the forecast
area Wednesday night into early Thursday. The upper level trough
driving the system will push through the area Thursday continuing
shower and thunderstorms chances during the day into the evening
before precipitation comes to at end.

Friday through Monday:

Conditions will again become tranquil behind the midweek system
although much cooler. The upper level trough as it moves eastward
will continue to dig as upper level ridging builds over the western
CONUS. This will leave the local area in cool northwest flow aloft.
Expect highs on Friday to be 5 to 10 degrees below average in the
low to mid 60s. A warming trend will then ensue through the weekend
with highs in the low to mid 70s on Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fog will affect the terminals thru 13Z reducing vsbys to 4SM-5SM at
MCI and MKC while dense fog will impact STJ thru 13Z reducing vsbys
to 1/4SM-1/2SM increasing to 3SM-5SM btn 13Z-15Z. Otrw...VFR
condition will be the rule through the remainder of the TAF period
with a few-sct clouds around 5kft this afternoon. Winds will be lgt
and vrb thru tonight when they will pick up out of the SE btn 4-7kts.




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