Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 041145
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Today: Primary weather of interest in the short-term will be focused
within the next 6-9 hours with the potential for some accumulating
snowfall and cold temperatures. Radar currently shows two separate
bands of snowfall; one over far NW MO/SE NE/SW IA, and one over
south central Kansas. Models, including high-resolution models, have
done a poor job with handling the first band. Based on radar
observations and the eastern progression into deeper dry air, a
gradual weakening is expected with the first band. Still, light
accumulating snowfall is possible over NW MO over the next few
hours. Further south, east central Kansas into west central Missouri
is likely to receive snowfall during the remainder of the morning
hours. The heaviest activity should remain just south of the KC
Metro area, generally between Harrisonville and Nevada, where up to
one inch of snow is possible over WC MO/EC KS. Elsewhere, scattered
flurries are possible if light snow can make it through a dry layer
around H85. With the mid/high cloudiness expected to persist and
cold air advection, highs today will remain unseasonably cold, with
readings in the 20s.

Tonight/Thursday: The cold airmass will be firmly in place tonight,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows tonight will fall into the single
digits to the lower teens. Wind chill values over northern Missouri
should fall below zero overnight. Little moderation is expected on
Thursday with highs only warming into the 20s to lower 30s. With
high pressure moving through, wind speeds will be light, along with
mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

The extended time frame continues to look dry and mild. Although,
models are out of phase with surface features through much of this
period, the synoptic pattern generally reveals a pattern providing
for above average temperatures through the period. Saturday reveals
weak northwesterly flow aloft as a upper level shortwave trough
moves through the Upper Midwest. Sunday the northwest flow begins to
relax and by Monday the flow becomes more zonal. By Tuesday, weak
upper level ridging that was over the western CONUS begins to spread
east into the region and temperatures are expected to further warm.
Expect highs in the 50s this weekend. However, as we move into the
upcoming work week, highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s by the
time we reach Tuesday and Wednesday which, is 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue at TAF sites. A large area of
snow will remain south of terminals, with no impacts at the surface
expected. Northerly winds will continue through the period, with wind
speeds gradually decreasing this afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair





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