Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 262304
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

This afternoon a vort max is dropping south-southeastward through
South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. Light snow is being
reported across those areas with this feature. This vort max is
progged to continue to dive SSE into the forecast area tonight.
Mid-lvl clouds are expected to move into the area late this
afternoon and into this evening out ahead of this feature. This will
help keep temperatures a bit warmer ahead of this feature and model
soundings are indicating that precipitation tonight will fall as
rain with the exception of areas near the Missouri/Iowa border where
snow may mix in but no accumulation is expected. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. The vort max will shift SE of
the forecast area by tomorrow morning as surface high pressure
builds into the area. Strong northwesterly flow aloft, light
northerly winds and the surface and increasing cloud cover in the
afternoon on Friday will make for another cool day across the area
with highs some 10-15 degrees below normal. Expect highs in the 40s
to near 50. Friday night another vort max will drop in the area on
northwest flow. Model soundings indicate that initially that a wedge
of dry air near the surface will be in place as the vort max moves
into the area. However, couple that with isentropic ascent on the
285K-295K surface and that dry wedge eventually saturates.
Temperatures will be cold enough Friday night to support snow or a
mix of rain and snow and some locations across northern Missouri
could receive have an inch of snow. Precipitation will come to an
end by mid-morning Saturday and the weekend warmup will be on the
way.

Saturday a cold front will move into the Plains and surface winds
will increase out of the southeast. Couple that with high rises as
weak upper ridging moves into the region and highs will warm
slightly into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Saturday night into Sunday
morning an upper level trough will move trough the Upper Midwest
forcing the aforementioned cold front through the area. Showers will
spread across the area with the best chances for precipitation
across the northern CWA. High pressure will build into the area on
Sunday behind the front with downsloping westerly flow. This will
help temperatures return to above normal as highs rise into the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upcoming work week looks mild as the upper level pattern becomes
quasi-zonal over the CONUS. The best chance for precipitation looks
to come in the Tuesday night through Wednesday night time frame as
models are all advertising an upper level trough moving from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest but disagree on timing of
this feature. Depending on timing if this feature forcing a cold
front into the area on Wednesday afternoon, as the GFS does, there
will be enough instability to spark convection. However, beyond this
system the extended timeframe looks dry at this time with highs
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s through the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Reduced ceiling heights will begin to work through the area Thursday
evening as low-level stratus pushes in from the NW. Expecting to see
periodic light precip in advance of a low center over eastern
Kansas. Thermal profile should remain above freezing through a
sufficient depth for all precip to remain in liquid form as the
activity sweeps through the terminals. By early Friday morning,
stratus deck will begin to scatter out to around 3 kft, with
improving conditions throughout the morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






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