Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011113

613 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours even with
scattered showers floating across the terminals. Ceilings and
reductions in visibility look to stay in the VFR range with the
showers that may effect the terminals. Otherwise, expect light and
variable wind this morning to swing to the south and southeast
this afternoon. More widely scattered showers may pop-up this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that anything will effect the
TAF sites.




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