Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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422
FXUS63 KEAX 112102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Next weather feature of interest inbound this afternoon as
seen on latest water vapor imagery with distinct darkening noted
across north-central Nebraska. With time this evening...expect snow
to gradually slide southeast across north-central and eastern
Missouri...as weak to moderate forcing combines with weak mid-level
frontogenesis. To reverberate earlier forecast discussions...this
feature is almost a carbon copy of yesterday/s weak wave that led to
snowfall accumulations of roughly an inch across eastern portions of
the fcst area. Considering this feature will too be moisture
starved...we can once again expect accumulations to remain around an
inch before activity slides southeast of the area shortly after
midnight. Overnight lows will range from the middle 20s across the
west to include the KC area...to upper teens across the far east.

Dry weather to return area on Friday with low clouds likely hanging
around for a good portion the morning into the early afternoon hrs.
Decent northerly flow on the backside of tonight/s storm system will
result in slightly cooler conditions than previously forecast...with
mid 30s expected across the KC Metro and points south...to upper 20s
for areas north of Route 36. Unfortunately the coldest period of the
weekend will arrive on Saturday as strong high pressure building into
the upper Miss Rvr Vly propels an Arctic front south across our area
Friday night. With sfc ridging extending directly south our area
combined with clearing skies aloft...single digit lows Saturday
morning will be followed by highs that will struggle to make it out
of the mid 20s Saturday afternoon. Current fcst calls for apparent
temps remaining just above windchill advisory thresholds...however
this will need to be revisited with later forecast packages.

Much of Saturday evening will remain dry across our region with
precip chances ramping up once again early Sunday morning as next
upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. Fcst models have been
all over the place with this system...with the NAM now being the
coldest solution of all. Meanwhile the GFS remains the warmest as it
takes a sfc low south along a preexisting thermal gradient through
the day on Sunday. This scenario would allow for a decent warm-up for
the western 2/3rds of the CWA Sunday afternoon with an early RA/SN
mix gradually transitioning to all RA in the afternoon. The ECMWF
appears to be a nice compromise right now...however would not be
surprised if it eventually trends towards a GFS solution later on.
That being said...cannot rule out the possibility for light
FZDZ/FZRA mix early Sunday morning before temps warm up later in the
day as fcst soundings continue to show a limited amount of saturation
in the snow growth region. It should be stated this trend is also
noted in the colder NAM solution as well. For areas east of Route
65...NAM and GFS soundings seem to agree that better saturation will
be in place aloft which should support more of a snow fcst. With many
details left to be worked out...did not want to get too cute with the
fcst...however have advertised a wintry mix of for areas west of
Route 65 Sunday morning. Precip chances should gradually come to an
end from west to east through the afternoon hrs as main trough
responsible quickly exits to the east later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A quick moving shortwave trough moving through the flow will follow
on the heels of the departing weekend system, impacting the Plains
region Monday. Long-range models drop this wave west and south of
the general area, limiting additional precipitation potential for
much of the CWA. If this wave digs a bit less, weekend precipitation
might linger into Monday. The remainder of the extended period looks
warm and dry with temperatures climbing into the 50s and low 60s as
upper ridge axis across the western US begins to flatten
and translate eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through much of the afternoon and
overnight...with MVFR cigs possibly developing after 12z Friday as
low-level moisture becomes trapped following the passage of a weak
storm system early Fri morning. Winds today and tonight will
continue to veer to the southeast and south out ahead of this
feature...with northerly winds becoming predominate after 12z.
Considering the distance into the fcst and uncertainties regarding
how low cigs will be Fri morning...have elected to only offer a
SCT025 mention at all locations after 13z for now. Later forecasts
will be able to address this minor concern a little better following
the arrival of addition near-term model guidance.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...32



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