Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220451

1151 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

There is the potential for a Chamber of Commerce week upcoming for
the area. The only potential fly in the ointment will be a upper
level trough that may affect the western CWA during the middle of
the week. However, in the short term conditions will be spectacular
as surface high pressure begins building into the area tonight.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational
cooling tonight and lows will drop into the mid 40s to near 50
across the area. High pressure will remain firmly in control through
Monday night with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows tomorrow
night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. On Tuesday, high pressure will
shift east of the area as an upper level trough deepens as it moves
from the central Rockies into the northern Plains. Thunderstorms are
progged to develop across central Kansas on Tuesday ahead of a
surface trough across western Kansas. These storms will move
eastward Tuesday and may move far enough east to affect northwest
Missouri and northeastern Kansas. This surface trough will then move
little Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper level trough slowly
sinks southward. This will continue slight chance to chance POPs
across the western CWA Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. The
upper level trough will weaken over the central Plains on Wednesday
night/Thursday as broad upper level ridging builds over much of the
CONUS. This will allow for dry conditions and warmer than average
temperatures for the second half of the work week into next weekend.
Expect highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 which is about 5
degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR conditions mainly expected through the fcst cycle...however brief
VSBY restrictions may occur at STJ during the predawn hrs if
radiation fog develops. Considering the amount of uncertainty...have
maintained a tempo IFR mention after 9z to account for the
possibility. After daybreak...any restrictions will quickly be
history with VFR returning terminal-wide under light easterly winds.




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