Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

Despite little in the way of sensible weather in the short term
there are still concerns and challenges. The immediate concern will
be for dense fog through the morning hours reducing visibilities to
1/4 mile or less at times as well as drizzle. Fog will become less
dense and patchy in the afternoon however persistent stratus will
limit warming and consequently have lowered highs for today.
However, highs will still be well above normal in the mid 40s to mid
50s. This evening a warm front will lift north across the CWA as a
southwesterly LLJ noses into the area. This will bring the chance
for a few showers across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas
before midnight. Saturday, we will finally rid the area of the
stratus and with moderate WAA highs will rise into the lower 50s to
lower 60s. A cold front will move through the area Saturday night.
The frontal passage will be dry but highs on Sunday will be cooler
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Monday, surface high pressure will move
into the area with highs remaining in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Models have been suggesting precipitation moving into the area
Monday night/Tuesday however, conditions look to remain dry on
recent model runs. And, with a omega blocking type pattern across
the CONUS believe the pattern will not be as progressive as
originally advertised. Consequently Monday night and Tuesday should
remain dry. Highs Tuesday will rise into the mid 40s to upper 50s.

Tuesday night the GFS and EC are in agreement that a front comes
through the CWA bringing rain perhaps changing to a mix during the
morning hours on Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will be a more
seasonable mid 30s to lower 40s. Precipitation will exit the area
Wednesday night however the seasonable temperatures will remain with
highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

With little change in airmass in comparison to the past two days,
have used them as a proxy to handle LIFR cigs/vis this morning.
Expect dense fog to persist thru 16Z-17Z reducing vsbys to
1/4SM-1/2SM with LIFR cigs. Vsbys are then expected to improve by
late morning to 2SM-3SM with LIFR cigs continuing. IFR/low MVFR
cigs are expected this afternoon before a warm front moves thru
the terminals this evening improving cigs to VFR. Winds will be
out of the ESE btn 5-10kts this morning becmg SE this afternoon
before veering to the south tonight as the warm front lifts thru
the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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