Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

The final day of much-above normal temperatures across the area - at
least for this particular stretch - will be on Saturday. Building
clouds will bring some relief from the sun as the mid/upper ridge
breaks down with the advance of a fairly potent upstream trough. The
first half of the day, and in fact most likely into the late
afternoon to early evening should remain dry as pressure height
falls slowly occur through the day. Still expecting highs today to
reach the middle to upper 80s by later this afternoon. As the mid
level trough approaches the area and pressure heights undergo steady
lowering scattered showers and thunderstorms will form, most likely
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Areas of central
Missouri should remain drier for a few hours longer than areas
further west. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
through the evening hours as the mid level trough finally ejects
into the area, bringing good support for mid level ascent.

Temperatures at the surface, as mentioned earlier, will likely reach
the middle to upper 80s, with dew points likely in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. This will bring CAPE values well above 1000 J/kg, perhaps
into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range by late this afternoon and early
evening. Deep layer shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will be enough
to combine with the instability to bring a chance for some strong to
severe storms Saturday evening. Storm coverage will likely increase
first in central/eastern Kansas and move NE within the southwesterly
flow aloft. Storms coverage will be rather robust, which not only
means high PoPs for the evening period, but also means storm
organization will be hard to come by. Expect there to be enough
interference among the ample storm updrafts to prevent much in the
way of organized supercellular development. Instead the most likely
form of storm mode will be clusters or linear segments that could
bring gusty winds, perhaps as high as 60 mph.  While each individual
shower will be moving swiftly within the deep 30 to 40 knot flow,
the line of storms themselves will be tied to the motion of the
trough itself, which could bring a longer residence time of the line
of thunderstorms. Therefore, while widespread flooding is not a
concern with this system, flood prone areas could see some problems
as an inch to 2 inches could fall over a wide area, with isolated
higher amounts. Chance/likely Pops will remain in the forecast as
long as the surface front itself continues to lag north of the area.
Once the front clear the area PoPs will decline. Expect the front to
move through NW/W MO by noon on Sunday, which will keep portions of
central Missouri with a wet forecast through at least Sunday
afternoon. The front should clear central Missouri by early Sunday
evening, which should mean a dry forecast for all areas Sunday late
afternoon or early evening through the next several days, as
dry/cool air associated with the surface ridge dominates the area
through at least the middle part of the week.

Mid level ridge will dominate the area, which will cause
temperatures to rise through the week, although they should stay
around seasonal normals in the middle to upper 70s. As that ridge
moves east southwest flow aloft will increase as the next trough
approaches the area. A surface trough at the surface will cause
surface winds to respond out of the south, which will bring another
batch of warm/moist air for the aforementioned late week trough to
use for another round of rain. At this time, the bulk of the rain
later this week looks to stay west of the area as the trough lags
just west of the area, but will introduce some SChc PoPs for the
western 1/2 of the forecast area later this week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Band of numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms over central KS
will make slow eastward progress, and much of this activity will not
cross into western MO until after dark. However, a few isolated to
scattered weak thunderstorms are possible ahead of this line as early
as 3 to 4 pm for the KC area. Off-and-on showers and a few storms
will continue overnight until a cold front swings through around
sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Hawblitzel


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