Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 252350

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
650 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Water vapor imagery shows the progressive open wave moving into the
High Plains currently with a surface low deepening in southwestern
KS in response. This will likely consolidate with another low
deepening over Nebraska. The surface warm front is splitting the
forecast area from southeast to northwest and should continue to lift
northward through the evening hours. As the upper system slowly
tracks east tonight, the surface front will push through the area as
a cold front and help trigger showers and storms late tonight/early
tomorrow morning through the early afternoon. The main change with
this forecast was to push back PoPs substantially in the 00Z-06Z time
frame. Forecast soundings show an elevated environment with a
substantial cap in place and with the upper level forcing not synced
to interact with the front and cool temperatures aloft until later,
just don`t see much potential for storms until the front begins to
move through overnight. With the timing of the front more in the
predawn hours, instability is much weaker so the overall threat of
severe weather in the forecast area looks rather low. The front will
slowly move through the area tomorrow but at the moment, it looks
precipitation chances will be winding down by early afternoon in our
southeastern zones. By this time, surface flow is so veered,
convergence along the front is much weaker and activity that is able
to be maintained should be much weaker as well.

The airmass behind the front isn`t dramatically cooler but it is
drier so the most noticeable difference will be the lower humidity
as highs will still be near 70. This will set the stage for a very
warm Friday as temperatures soar into the lower 80s. Winds will also
increase with 15 to 20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
But another front will move through the area Saturday
evening/overnight and knock temperatures back into the 60s and lower
70s. This is still above normal though for late October though. For
Monday, a similar scenario to Friday is expected. It would not be
surprising to see temperatures near or exceeding 80 degrees. Over the
western forecast area, models show 18 to 20 C air at 850mb. Deep
mixing into this layer is likely which could yield highs in the
lower 80s. For both Friday and Monday we`ll be close to records,
depending on just how deep the mixing is.

Record High Temperatures
Kansas City:
10/28   84   1944
10/31   87   1951

St Joseph:
10/28   85   1927
10/31   88   1950


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Have delayed arrival
of convection by a few more hours as short range models are slower in
developing initial activity to the west. Convection expected to
reach northwest MO/northeast KS closer to midnight as a
scattered/broken line which will move into northern and west central
MO between 09z-12z. Expect VFR ceilings with the convection except
for embedded pockets of MVFR ceilings/visibilities with the stronger
cells. Activity should push out of northeast and central MO by around
18z. MVFR ceilings expected to form across northern into central MO
by late morning and slowly shift east during the afternoon.

Southerly winds from 10-15kts will veer slightly to the southwest
Wednesday morning with the passage of the convection. A true cold
frontal passage will see the arrival of northwest winds during the
mid/late afternoon hours.




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