Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KEAX 120558
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, Dry, and Breezy Today with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns

- Multiple Rounds of Rain and Thunderstorms Middle of This Week

- Temperatures Generally Above Normal Over Next 7 Days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
There is ridging in the mid-levels with the axis being directly over
our region moving eastward. Skies have remained clear due to the
subsidence ahead of the ridging which can be seen on satellite
imagery. The surface high to the southeast over the MS/AL border has
winds coming from the southwest. Leeside cyclogenesis is aiding in
the development of a surface low developing over the CO/KS border.
This low is helping to keep the pressure gradient strengthened
therefore, increased wind speeds are expected to continue until the
high pushes out of the area. Winds will may have an occasional gust
to the mid 20s until around sunset when diurnal mixing is expected
to diminish. Overnight, winds are expected to stay around 5-12
knots.

During the day Tuesday, more warm and gusty conditions are expected.
Highs will again be in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday evening into
overnight Wednesday, there is a chance for isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms as a shortwave trough passes through the area and a
low level jet sets up over the area overnight. SPC has the
southwestern portion of the region extending as far north as Kansas
City within a marginal risk for severe storms. Despite the slightly
increased dewpoints thanks to moisture advection out ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough, moisture will be the main limiting
factor to storm development tomorrow. Dew points are currently
forecasted to only be in the mid 40s. However, some model guidance
suggests that there could be a narrow corridor of 50+ dew points
advecting into the region from the south southwest. If moisture
return is strong enough, there may be a few isolated strong to
severe storms tomorrow evening/night as MUCAPE values should range
from 750-1,000 J/kg and a low level jet sets up giving us some
decent wind shear.

As early morning convection shifts east of the area on
Wednesday a warm front will be draped across the northern CWA.
The warm front will slowly lift north during the day Wednesday
to near to Missouri/Iowa border. This will leave the forecast
area in the warm sector with highs in the mid to upper 70s and
weakly capped. The potential threat for severe weather will
develop Wednesday afternoon as a low level jet develops and
noses into the area. However, the severe threat is conditional
as model soundings continue to keep the area weakly capped in
the afternoon. In addition, moisture is very shallow across the
area with very dry air in the mid-levels. However, if something
can break through the cap, instability will be on the order of
1500J/Kg of MUCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates which would
be sufficient for producing damaging winds and large hail. The
best focus for storms may be north of the warm front along the
MO/IA as the LLJ overruns its keeping the bulk of storms north
of the forecast area. Wednesday night a surface low will move
from northeastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska this may
bring an better chance for storms across the northwestern CWA
however, models continue to keep the area capped. Thursday, the
aforementioned surface low will move across central Iowa with a
trailing cold front extending south that will move through the
area on the day Thursday. This continued lack of moisture return
and weak capping may continue to keep showers and thunderstorms
scattered and light in nature. High temperatures across the
forecast area will range from the mid 60s across northwestern
Missouri to the mid 70s across the southeastern CWA.

Conditions look to dry out on Friday as surface high pressure will
build into the area. CAA over the area early in the day couple with
weak afternoon mixing will keep highs in the mid to upper 50s. High
pressure pushes east of the area Saturday with downsloping westerly
flow developing allowing highs to rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s. Saturday night a upper level trough will dig into the Upper
Midwest forcing a dry cold front through the area. CAA behind the
front on Sunday will bring a cool day with highs in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. CAA will continue into Sunday night which will drop
temperatures into mid 20s to near 30 which looks to be our next
widespread freeze.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period.
Increasing southwest winds by late morning will continue
through the afternoon. Wind gusts to 25 kts can be expected.
Mid-level ceilings will increase in coverage as a frontal
boundary approaches area terminals from the west this evening.
VCTS and -TSRA chances are low at this time given current
expectations are for development east of the terminals. However,
it is best to watch for adjustments, if needed, in later TAF
issuances.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier/73
AVIATION...Kurtz


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.