Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 142026

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
326 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Issued at 326 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Focus in the short-term remains the potential for low stratus to
redevelop and increasing southerly winds overnight. Current low
clouds continue to mix with large breaks beginning to develop. With
continued warm air advection, expect to see stratus fill back into
the area. May see some patchy fog and/or drizzle form after
midnight. Otherwise an increasing pressure gradient will result in
gusty southerly winds developing tonight into Saturday. Some wind
gusts on Saturday may approach 35 mph. As low clouds mix,
temperatures will rapidly rebound into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
There remains a slight chance for thunderstorms across the northern
and northeastern portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon
and evening, but best chances will remain north of the area closer
to a stalled cold front and associated upper wave. Well above normal
temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday as we remain in the warm
sector, with afternoon readings residing in the middle 80s. The
aforementioned cold front pushes through Tuesday, but all signs
point to a dry frontal passage at this time. Cooler weather advects
into the CWA by mid-week. High uncertainty exists in the extended
with the evolution of the next trough and the related impacts to the
CWA, but could see an extended wet period, especially if a solution
similar to the GFS verifies.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Current low stratus and patchy fog should improve this afternoon with
further mixing and upstream breaks in the clouds. Expect a return to
IFR/MVRF conditions later this evening, with periods of LIFR
possible. Southerly winds will increase through the TAF period, and
should remain gusty at the surface to avoid LLWS thresholds.




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