Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 110504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

A cold front is moving into far northwestern MO early this afternoon
and will continue to move southward through the evening and overnight
hours. This front may become a focus for showers and storms late
this afternoon into the overnight hours. But there are a few items
that are contributing a good amount of uncertainty. First, the
convection over western KS is spreading cirrus eastward and will
likely envelope the forecast area this afternoon and this evening.
In parts of eastern KS, where the cirrus has move into already, a
noticeable decrease in the diurnal CU has occurred before the cirrus
becomes too thick to see through. This adds some uncertainty to just
how much instability will be available for any convection in our
area. Second, there is very weak surface and low level flow ahead of
the front. Thus, convergence along the front is weak and this leads
to uncertainty regarding the initiation and coverage of possible
storms.

With all that said, scattered convection should develop along the
front late this afternoon in northern MO. Models suggest there may
be as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE in the area with 30 to 40
kts of 0-6km shear. Forecast soundings show a CAPE profile that`s
not quite as robust with perhaps up to 2000 J/kg and weaker shear
confined to mainly the 3-6km layer. Forecast soundings also show a
shallow inverted V due to mixing to only about 3500 to 4000 feet.
All this suggest that the storms that do develop may be marginally
strong across northern MO and mainly a strong wind/downburst threat.
Small hail will be possible with initial updrafts but the overall
threat should become strong winds as the front pushes everything
southward through the night.

The front should push south of the forecast area by tomorrow morning
with any lingering precipitation confined to our far southern zones
through the middle of the day Friday. With drier air moving in
behind the front it should be relatively comfortable day with highs
in the low to mid 80s and middle 60 degree dewpoints. Relatively
pleasant conditions will persist into Saturday with similar
temperatures and cooler dewpoints. For Sunday, there may be more
widespread showers and storms across parts of KS with some of this
activity spreading east into our forecast area. At the very least,
thicker cloud cover looks likely which will help keep temperatures
well below normal. For now it looks like highs may only be in the
70s across the area. The cooler pattern looks to persist at least
through the middle of the week with highs 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2017

Isolated showers and storms will continue to develop and spread
across the region, impacting the terminals on and off through the
early morning hours. These storms should eventually translate
southward by sunrise, then ceilings will scatter out gradually on
Friday. Winds will remain out of the northwest to northeast, but
at speeds light enough that direction will vary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Laflin



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