Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
730 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

Issued at 402 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday):

Tonight: Thunderstorms have begun to develop across eastern Nebraska
and central Kansas along a dry line. These thunderstorms will
continue to shift slowly east late this afternoon into this evening.
Storms are developing in an area of 1500-2000J/kg of MUCAPE,and dew
points in the upper 50s to near 60. Consequently these storms will
have the potential to be severe. Large hail and damaging winds will
the main threat despite the fact that 0-6km bulk shear is currently
weak it is expected to increase during the evening hours. These
storms will move east toward the CWA this evening however, hi-res
models suggest they will be diminishing as they reach us but does
depict a quasi-linear mode of storms that will be capable of
producing strong to damaging winds across extreme northeastern
Kansas and northwest Missouri. Further south across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri, storms will be weakened as they move into
more stable air. Storms will continue through midnight before they
diminish in the overnight hours.

Monday through Tuesday: The upper level system that is the catalyst
for tonight`s system will move into the upper Midwest and weaken.
The attendant cold front will sag into the area tomorrow morning.
this front will slowly sag through the CWA during the day. Weak
convergence and moderate instability of 1000-1500J/kg of CAPE south
of the front may be enough to spark convection south of the front
however lack of forcing may keep conditions quiet. Consequently,
have just slight chance POPs across the southern CWA. Monday night
the front will become stationary across the southern CWA or just
south of the CWA. During the overnight hours a 40-50kt SWly LLJ will
increase across eastern OK and nose into sern KS/swrn MO. This may
provide enough lift to over run the stationary boundary and allow
for thunderstorm development that would affect the southern CWA late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Tuesday a vigorous upper level
trough will move from the central Rockies into the High Plains. An
associated cold front will move into the western Plains with a dry
line across central Kansas. This will be the system to watch during
the extended period as there is the potential for all mode of severe
weather with this system. However, outside of morning showers and
storms, the area looks to remain capped through the day keeping
conditions dry will highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday night through Sunday:

There will be two system capable of producing severe weather in the
extended period. The first will come on Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Tuesday night the aforementioned upper level trough will
move into central Plains taking on a negative tilt as it does so. As
it does an embedded shortwave will rotate around the base of the
trough ushering in cooler air aloft and eroding the cap. This will
allow storms to develop along the aforementioned dryline in eastern
Kansas. With strong shear, instability and moisture all modes of
severe weather will be possible. PWAT values approaching 1.5" will
also these storms to be very efficient and flooding can not be ruled
out. Storms will push east across the CWA Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Wednesday, the upper level trough will move
through the eastern Plains weakening as it does. An attendant cold
front will move into Wednesday afternoon. Any severe potential is
conditional if the airmass can rebound from morning convection. If
conditions do destabilize severe storms will again be possible
across the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA. The front finally pushes east
of the area Wednesday night and we brief dry out on Wednesday night
and Thursday. Friday night, yet another negatively tilted upper
trough will move into the Plains allowing thunderstorm to overspread
the area. Shear, moisture, and instability will also be conducive
for severe storms Friday night into Saturday. Sunday, the upper
level system moves through the region continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 723 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

Small line of sub-severe showers moving into the terminals this
hour. lightning should be fairly isolated with these storms, but
could bring a brief period of moderate rain. There will then be a
break between this line and a more robust thunderstorm line that
should move through the terminals closer to midnight. Have opted for
an aggressively tight window for the showers to move into the
terminals, roughly based on hi-res thunderstorm models. These storms
will likely not remain over the terminals for the time duration
indicated in the TEMPO group, but gave a little bit of room on either
side for storms to slow down or speed up over the next few hours. At
any rate, expect moderate to heavy rain with gusty convectively
driven winds and perhaps some small hail.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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