Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270528
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

Deepening low pressure over the High Plains is causing the surface
pressure gradient over the area to strengthen through the day. As a
result, winds have increased through the day, with sustained winds
around 15 mph and gusts approaching 25 at times. Clear skies will
give way to clouds through the overnight hours as the warm/moist air
advection kicks in. The low level jet overnight will be rather
impressive, with 850 winds expected to be in the 40 to 50 knot
range. Forecast soundings through the morning hours indicate little
mixing, so while there may be some gustiness to the overnight winds,
the boundary layer is generally expected to be decoupled through the
overnight hours. While the low level increases to 60-70 knots by
Sunday evening stable air above a very shallow mixed layer will
likely prevent these strong winds from reaching the surface. Expect
breezy/gusty conditions through the day on Sunday, but the
aforementioned shallow mixed layer induced by the widespread cloud
cover should mitigate any of the strong winds aloft from reaching
the surface. That being said, it will only require a minor increase
in mixing to translate those stronger winds to the surface, and/or
the light precipitation occurring through the day may aid in downward
momentum transfer of these stronger winds. Due to the strength of
the stable layer where the strong winds reside will not put out any
hazards for wind. As for precipitation, the atmospheric profile will
saturate from the bottom up with the moisture return. Initially
skies will just be cloudy, with perhaps some light rain or drizzle
by the early morning hours. As the column saturates rain will become
more widespread, but again should be rather light through most of
the day. Some very modest elevated instability builds into the area
as the trough ejects through, but only a minimal amount of elevated
CAPE will bring isolated rumbles of thunder. Given the very strong
wind field as well as the elevated nature of these showers expect
them to be rather progressive as they move through the area. Perhaps
there could be as much as a quarter inch of rain along and south of
the KC metro and I-70 corridor, but the higher amounts will likely
be near the IA/MO border, where a quarter to half inch of rain could
be. Rain showers should be able to hold on across central Missouri
through parts of Monday as the system depart, then thereafter dry
conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period. A
fairly strong cold front (at least for 2016 standards) will move in
for the middle part of the week, which will effectively knock
temperatures back into the 20s/30s for lows and the 40s/50s for
highs through the rest of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

Main concern for the overnight period is low-level wind shear, though
lingering strong surface winds may minimize the full potential of
speed shear from the surface to 2kft, where SW winds will approach
40kts. MVFR ceilings will approach the area from the SW Sunday
morning ahead of the next storm system. Initially, moisture will be
confined to the lower levels and may result in light drizzle through
the morning hours, along with low-end MVFR ceilings, possibly
reducing to IFR at times. Ceiling heights will continue to degrade
early in the afternoon as moisture continues to deepen across the
area. Additionally, surface winds begin to gust to 30 kts and
persist through the afternoon. Widespread precipitation looks to be
slightly delayed than previously forecast, though should impact the
terminals by the mid afternoon hours. This activity should taper off
toward the end of the period, though ceiling heights will remain MVFR
or below Sunday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Welsh



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