Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 092020

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Issued at 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Dry weather is expected to persist through much of the forecast as
there is very little change in the upper level flow across the CONUS
until the middle to later part of next week. Despite the dry weather
though, there are several issues over the next few days. First, with
the stratus eroding rather quickly now, and this trend is expected
to continue over night as high pressure moves into the area. With the
high centered right over the region late tonight and early tomorrow
morning, there looks to be a decent chance of some fog development.
The best chance for fog looks to be over the southern half to two
thirds of the forecast area where crossover temperatures are more
likely to be exceeded. Further north, winds may have already
switched to the south providing enough mixing to inhibit fog

The other forecast challenge in the short term portion of the
forecast is temperatures on Sunday and perhaps elevated fire weather
concerns as a result. Sunday`s high just looks hot for this time of
year. Very warm air aloft, 20C at 850mb, supports highs in the upper
80s. The record for the KC area is 89 degrees. We`ll be flirting
with that record. If the thermal axis shifts a little further to the
south it could surge the KC area into the upper 80s. For now, it
looks like the warmest temperatures will be from northwestern
Missouri southwest into Kansas. The deep mixing will likely result
in lower afternoon dewpoints, and when combined with the relatively
strong winds, warm temperatures, and drying out fuels, the fire
danger looks to be elevated.

These warm temperatures will occur ahead of cold front that is
expected to move through the area Sunday night/Monday morning. This
frontal passage continues to look like it will be dry so have
continued with no mentionable precipitation. For Monday, in the wake
of the front, strong northwest winds and dry advection may lead to
another round of elevated fire danger. Humidity values should
actually be lower Monday afternoon with as strong or stronger winds.

The rest of the forecast looks quiet as the upper pattern becomes
more amplified across the country. Ridging over the west with
troughing over the east and northwest flow over the center of the
country  will keep the coldest air off to the Great Lakes area. So
as high pressure moves into the center of the country it will really
only result in temperatures getting close to normal for the time of


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

What VFR conditions are out there this morning are expected to give
way to MVFR skies this morning as a deck of low clouds moves south
behind the cold front that swept through overnight. Don`t have a high
degree of confidence on when clouds will clear out as latest models
now point at the clouds sticking around through much of the day.
Still, thoughts are some breaks should spread into the terminals by
the mid-afternoon hours. Otherwise, the wind is expect to persist
from the north through the day before going light and variable
tonight as a surface high slides across the region.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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