Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161929
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
229 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The weak upper level wave that brought the overnight rain is
currently centered over far north central MO with an attendant cold
front draped southwest from there. The front will be the focus for
afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Modest instability exists but bulk
shear is weak thus the severe threat is low with strong winds and
locally heavy rains the main issues. What activity does develop
should clear the CWA later this evening. Skies will be slow to clear
but with light winds and a moist boundary layer, patchy to locally
dense fog is expected to develop after midnight tonight, mainly north
of I-70.

Tomorrow should see low chances for scattered showers across the
eastern CWA with much of the CWA remaining dry and mild. Late
tomorrow night into Monday a trough moves across the far northern
upper midwest which will help kick off scattered TSRA early Monday
morning then into the day and evening. Not expecting anything severe
with the activity. From then on the region will be under the
influence of a building ridge. The ridge will allow for the return of
hot and humid air with low chance pops (mainly nocturnal) through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MVFR CIGS to continue through the afternoon per visible satellite
trends and removed previous VCTS for this afternoon given a stable
airmass behind a cold front now south of the terminals. Skies will
slowly clear overnight with patchy fog developing given the moist
airmass and light to calm winds. Tomorrow, once we mix out, VFR CIGS
and VIS with developing southeasterly surface flow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






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