Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 100545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Still expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period with winds
coming around to the south, then northeast by the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton


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