Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 112329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
529 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 225 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2018

The short term forecast will feature dry conditions with a nice
warming trend through mid-week. This afternoon temperatures have
rebounded a bit with the return of the sun however, temperatures
remain below normal. Tonight will be the low point in temperatures
this forecast period as high pressure builds into the area. Expect
lows to bottom out in the single digits to the north and lower teens
to the south. The warm up will begin on Monday as upper level flow
across the region becomes zonal. Sunny skies are expected Monday
with highs rising into the 30s to near 40 with northern Missouri
remaining a bit cooler in the mid to upper 20s with snowpack on the
ground. Zonal flow aloft continues on Tuesday with southerly winds
providing modest WAA. This will allow temperatures to rise into the
40s to near 50 again with the exception of northern Missouri where
snowpack may hold on long enough to hold highs in the upper 30s.
Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as strong WAA
filters into the area. Some limiting factors may be the additional
cloud cover and any remaining snowpack on the ground across northern
Missouri. However, still believe high temperatures will reach the
50s to even lower 60s.

The Thursday through Thursday night time period provides the best
chance for precipitation. This will be provided by a upper level
shortwave passing north of the area which will sag a cold front into
the CWA. Gulf moisture streaming into the area will provide the
chance for showers ahead of the front. Late Thursday/Thursday night
another shortwave trough will move into the upper Midwest and
central Plains. This will force the front south through the area and
provide the chance for another round of rain changing to snow behind
the front. At this time little to no accumulation would be expected.
The cold frontal passage however, will usher in much cooler
temperatures for Friday with highs in the 30s. Another warming trend
does look to be in store for next weekend as WAA again gets
underway. By Sunday, highs will be back up in the mid 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours. Expect light northwest winds to veer to the east for
Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Cutter



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