Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KEAX 251744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

There are several concerns in the short-term as this morning
flooding is currently ongoing across Putnam, Schuyler and Adair
counties as storms have been training over those locations through
the overnight hours. Radar estimates suggest that 4 to 6 inches have
fallen across those areas and several area roads have been
reported as flooded. These showers and storms should finally weaken
and shift east by mid morning as the LLJ that fueled this
precipitation will weaken and veer.

For the remainder of today, conditions should remain dry however, a
cold front will be sinking slowly south across the CWA. There is a
potential for a subtle shortwave to ignite convection briefly late
this morning along the front. The best potential for precipitation
however, will come beginning late this afternoon/evening as a
vigorous shortwave moves into the area. Warm temperatures south of
the front in the upper 80s to mid 90s will provide for strong late
afternoon instability. Strong instability, along with steep lapse
rates, and extremely moist conditions with dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s will lead to severe potential. With generally weak shear,
the main mode of severe weather is expected to be in the form of
hail. The bigger concern however, may come later tonight when a
35-45kt LLJ increases and storms grow upscale into an MCS that
will develop over the CWA. Strong moisture convergence along the
slow moving front, and PWATs ranging from 2.00"-2.25" suggest heavy
and prolonged rain is likely. Most of the CWA may receive
precipitation between 2"-4" with locally heavier amounts under
heavier and training storms. As such, a flash flood watch has been
issued for the entire CWA from 00Z Friday until 18Z Friday. Heavy
showers and thunderstorms will continue across the southern CWA
(along the front) through Friday morning. This precipitation will
finally push south of the area by Friday night as a deepening upper
level trough digs through the Upper Midwest and force the front
south of the area. Conditions should be cooler on Friday with highs
in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

A surface ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
on Friday night drying conditions out. This surface ridge will
remain over the area through Saturday with strong northerly flow
aloft. This will make for very pleasant temperatures on Saturday
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLATTED TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING SHWRS AND
STORMS ALONG THE FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES...AND QUICK LOOK AT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY EARLY
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN AND PROVIDING DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHWRS/STORMS AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA. DESPITE BEING ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGH
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ON MONDAY...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

Tried to refine the timing of the precip to the terminals. The
afternoon/evening stuff is a bit uncertain with coverage, but
overnight is a bit more widespread, so tried to convey that with the
VCTS/TEMPO group in the evening with a prevailing group overnight.
Best chance for the prevailing thunderstorm activity is in the
overnight period. Determining the exact cutoff of the precipitation
early Friday morning is tricky, so went with a VCTS transition
period through mid morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     afternoon FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     afternoon FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Leighton






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.