Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230511
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 346 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

Short Term (Tonight through Sunday night):

A quick moving surface ridge of high pressure just west of the
forecast area this afternoon will quickly move through the area
tonight. This will provide for mostly clear skies and light winds
allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s in the
urban core. The surface will quickly shift eastward tomorrow morning
and WAA will get underway. That WAA coupled with upper level ridging
will help temperatures quickly warm into the mid 70s to near 80 on
Saturday. Saturday night a upper level trough with a closed low will
move from the central Rockies into northern Plains forcing a cold
front into the central Plains. Thunderstorms will develop across the
central Plains Saturday night and will persist through the overnight
hours. These storms will be enhanced by a SSWly LLJ which will become
more SWly Sunday morning and may allow decaying storms to reach the
northwestern portion of the CWA. Sunday, the cold front will remain
across the central Plains as a dry line exists across the eastern
Plains. Thunderstorms will develop along the dryline late Sunday
afternoon/Sunday evening. These storms will have the potential to be
strong to marginally severe with moderate instability of 1000-
1500J/kg of CAPE and, modest moisture with dewpoints in the upper
50s to near 60. The limiting factor will be the shear. However,
marginal severe storms still look possible along and west of the I-
35 corridor. Storms will persist into Sunday night before
during the early morning hours Monday. Highs Sunday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.


Extended Range (Monday through Friday):

The aforementioned cold front will finally sag through the area on
Monday with the slight chance for a few additional showers and
thunderstorms. Tuesday a upper level trough will move from the Great
Basin into the northern High Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur
with a surface low developing across east central Colorado. By
Tuesday night the surface low will move to northeastern Kansas
lifting a warm front across the CWA. A 40KT SWly LLJ will nose into
the area over riding the warm front providing lift for thunderstorm
development. These storms will initially be elevated with hail being
the main threat. However, by early Wednesday morning the upper level
trough moves into the central Plains taking on a negative tilt. The
surface low will move to south central Nebraska an the warm front
moves north of the area leaving the CWA in the warm sector. Wednesday
morning the cold front extending across eastern Kansas from the
surface low will approach the area. Despite time of day (morning)
models still have strong instability of 1500-2000J/Kg of CAPE as
well as 60-70kts of 0-6km of bulk shear and good moisture with
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. If this set up remains all modes of
severe weather would be possible. The Upper level trough will move
across the Upper Midwest Wednesday night continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances before conditions dry out for Thursday. Model
solutions lack run to run consistency beyond Thursday as the 12Z
model suite keeps Friday dry as well whereas previous runs brought
another round of storms to the area. Consequently, slight chance to
chance POPs and maintained through Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

Added a TEMPO group to the terminals for early morning haze and
perhaps a very brief period of CIGs around 3 kft. These restrictions
should not persist very long after sunrise. Winds will generally be
out of the south around 10 kts with occasional gusts to around 20
kts.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Leighton



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