Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230349

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

It simply doesn`t get much better than this for a mid-fall weekend
across the Lower Missouri Vly. Low amplitude upper ridge still in
place across the Nation`s midsection this afternoon...with sfc high
pressure retreating into the Southeast. Southerly flow on the
backside of this feature has returned to the area with warm air
advection in full effect this afternoon with temps hovering in the
lower 70s. The one weather feature of minor interest is seen in water
vapor imagery over north-central Montana this the form
of a compact midlevel shortwave trough. This feature is expected to
continue rounding the upper ridge axis overnight before dropping
southeast into the upper Miss Rvr Vly and eventually the western
Great Lakes on Sunday. As this occurs...expect a weak cold front to
track south through the fcst area on Sunday with winds shifting to
the north during the afternoon hours. As highlighted yesterday substantial cooldown expected on Monday as southerly
flow quickly returns late in the day as high pressure to our north
retreats eastward. Despite this...temps will be a little cooler on
Monday...with most locations warming into the middle to upper 60s for
daytime highs.

Next weather feature of interest will begin developing late Monday
night as a leeside low takes shape over the central High Plains. This
feature will then begin lifting northeast through the Central Plains
on Tuesday before passing just to our northwest by early Wednesday
morning. As feature approaches...expect a warm front to lift through
the area on Tuesday which will lead to warmer temps /lower 70s/ and
the possibility of developing warm advection shwrs/storms during the
late afternoon hrs... especially across north-central Missouri.
Shwr/storm converge will the increase overnight into Wednesday as
main trailing cold front approaches and moves through the area.
Fcst models continue to show a fairly narrow warm sector with modest
instability forecast to move downstream ahead of the front on
Wednesday. As a result...see no reason not to maintain thunder
mention based on latest model runs...however expectations for severe
wx remain low due to weak wind fields and meager instability.

Rain/storms to quickly come to an end by late Wednesday afternoon
with nothing but dry conditions foreseen through the conclusion of
the work week and into the early weekend. Only item of note will be a
possible cold front passage on Saturday with a resurgence of some
precip as strong storm system passes well to our north. In any
event...above normal temps look to continue for awhile.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

The area will remain under VFR conditions throughout the period with
winds out of the south around 10mph. A low level jet with winds 40kts
at 2000ft will be in place through 12z creating LLWS from the
southwest over most the terminals. A dry cold front will push through
the region tomorrow afternoon switching wind direction to the NW for
the end of the period.




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