Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 131726
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

As of this writing, the modest cold front forecast to settle south
through Kansas and Missouri early this morning is currently along a
line roughly from Quincy Illinois tailing back to the west southwest
through Kansas City. Main body of stormy activity with the front is
lagging the surface feature as moisture convergence is focused on
the elevated front, though scattered storm development has been
noted as the surface front progresses south. The front will slowly
progress south through the morning, taking the stormy activity south
with it. However, as the storms settle ever southward they are also
expected to dissipate as the low level jet feeding the moisture will
begin to veer off this morning. Therefore, while POPs early --before
12Z-- this morning are in the categorical range, they quickly taper
to chance POPs and then continue to fade through the day as the
front settles farther south. Otherwise for today, temperatures wont
be as hot or humid thanks to the slightly cooler air behind the
front.

Looking at the big picture, main weather focus for the next 24 hours
will be on the Canadian gyre as a trough sweeps under it and swings
into the Great Lakes. This will push a second, stronger cold front
south through Kansas and Missouri Monday. This will provide the
region with the potential for more rain. However, instability and
shear with this next front will be rather weak, so storms are not
expected to be particularly robust and might be scattered in areal
coverage. So, have kept POPs in the chance range even as confidence
grows in the potential rain.

Temperatures will be notably cooler Monday as the reinforcing cold
air drops south from Canada behind the second front. This trend will
maximize Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon highs topping out in
the 70s and overnight lows likely remaining in the 50s. Conditions will
recover back into the 80s towards the end of the work week with dry
conditions prevailing through at least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Going VFR for the rest of the forecast period. Winds will be sort of
variable through the overnight hours with one or more surface features
affecting the surface wind pattern. Could see several hours of
shifting wind directions, but wind speeds generally expected to be
at or below 5 kts. Hinting at some approaching showers about 16z to
17z tomorrow. Timing could be a little aggressive with 17z, but
figured it would be fine to hint at it with a VCSH group.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton





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