Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 022002
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

We are once again heading into an active pattern with thunderstorm
chances in the forecast every day from Wednesday through next
Tuesday. Ridging building into the Southern Plains will place our
area right in the path of multiple impulses rounding this ridge, a
pattern that looks to persist for several days. Combine these
impulses with moderate to strong instability across the region (enhanced
by anomalously high ground moisture from here to the Gulf Coast) and
we could have a setup favorable for multiple mesoscale convective
systems tracking across the region through the weekend. Some of these
could produce severe wind and heavy rain, but pinpointing the exact
details of these storms will be quite difficult due to the low
predictability of these MCS patterns. Storm potential most days will
be highly dependent on the evolution of storms from the previous
day/night and their effects on stability and any remnant boundaries.

For tonight, there`s a slight chance that showers and perhaps an
isolated storm could spread into northwest Missouri this evening
where isentropic lift will begin to increase after 21Z. However, the
airmass below 700 hPa is fairly stable so any precipitation that does
develop should be high-based and weak. Better chances will spread
into eastern KS and western MO late tonight into Wednesday morning as
better instability (mostly elevated) spreads into the region from the
west and a weak impulse spreads out of the Rockies into the Plains. A
second weak wave could spark additional showers and storms during the
afternoon Weds, mainly over northern Missouri and northeast Kansas,
but models are not in total agreement on the timing/presence of this
wave. There is slightly better agreement that a stronger wave could
spark off convection over this same general area toward sunrise
Thursday. If the NAM is correct in slowing this wave down, then
strong storms would be a possibility Thursday afternoon with a more
unstable airmass in place.

Same general pattern continues Friday into the weekend with a
continued stream of weak impulses rounding the upper-level ridge to
the south. The highest chances for severe storms, possibly
supercells, would exist wherever (and if) the low-level jet could
become focused below stronger 500-hPa winds on the northern periphery
of the ridge. Right now that looks more likely to be from northern MO
into Iowa both Friday and Saturday. However with the magnitude of
instability forecast, these storms could easily congeal into a cold-
pool-dominated convective system which thermal wind vectors suggest
would dive southward into much of Missouri during the
evening/overnight. Again, lots to be seen with the strength/timing
of these waves and how each round of storms affects the atmosphere
going down the road. It certainly won`t be a boring forecast these
next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Low level moisture has been stubborn to clear out these past few
days, and current thinking is that today will be similar with
scattered to broken MVFR clouds sticking around for several more
hours. May need to watch for some scattered showers and storms toward
sunrise but confidence is not very high on this.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel





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