Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 262027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Short Term (Today through Saturday night):

Severe weather will be likely this evening into tonight with all
modes of severe weather possible. Storms that have fired this morning
in a uncapped environment of strong instability between 2000-4000
J/Kg of MUCAPE have continued to fire along subsequent outflow
boundaries and consequently severe storms have persist into the
afternoon. 0-1km shear has been weak however, 0-6km remains strong
between 40-50kts. This strong 0-6km shear is expected to continue
into this evening/tonight as is the aforementioned strong
instability. A warm front analyzed extending from a surface low out
across swrn Kansas extends to near the KS/NE border and into the KC
Metro. This is allowing winds to be backed at the surface and despite
weak low- level shear may still be sufficient to allow tornadoes to
develop. As the event unfolds, supercellular storms from this
afternoon are expected to congeal into a linear mode with winds being
the main threat however with surface winds remaining backed,
tornadoes along the line may still be possible. Also, of concern is
the potential for flash flooding as PWAT values of of 1.75"-2.25"
exist across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models hint that
storms may become anchored on the surface warming front with training
of storms possible. Couple the high PWATs, with previous rainfall
over the past few days and the potential for training...flash
flooding is a threat. Consequently a flash flood watch has been
issued through 18Z tomorrow. Storms are expected to weaken after
midnight be still persist into tomorrow morning. Storms and cloud
cover that persist into the morning hours tomorrow should help to
limit instability tomorrow. Although scattered thunderstorms are
possible throughout the day tomorrow stronger storm are not likely
until later in the evening. This will occur as the upper level trough
moves into western Plains and fires storms along a cold front/dryline
across western Kansas. These storms will progress eastward and move
into the western CWA in a weakened form tomorrow night. On Saturday,
the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and weakens but
forces a cold front through the CWA. A few storms could be strong if
conditions could destabilize in the afternoon/evening otherwise
storms will remain sub-severe.

Extended Term: (Sunday through Thursday):

Sunday the upper level trough will swing through the Midwest
however, the cold front will have pushes east of the area and most
of the day should remain dry. However, dry conditions will be short-
lived. As we get into Sunday, the synoptic set-up become very
similar to the one we experienced early this week with a upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS and the local area under
southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave is expected to eject out from
the southwestern trough and move into the region late Sunday/Sunday
night sparking another round of convection. Conditions will remain
unsettled as we move into next week as several shortwaves eject out
from the slow moving southwestern trough, continuing thunderstorm


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Thunderstorms will affect the terminals thru most of the first 12
hours of the TAF pd. There may be a brief window btn 18Z-20Z where
storms will shift north and east of the TAF site however expect
storms to build back into the terminals around 20Z with a window of
strong storms possible btn 22Z-02Z when mod-hvy tsra will be possible
reducing vsbys to 1SM-3SM and produce wind gusts in excess of 35kts.
Thunderstorms may linger into the overnight before pushing east of
the terminals durg the morning hours. However...models are consistentwith
Low MVFR/IFR cigs building into the terminals tomorrow morning.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MOZ001>004-



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