Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 292118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
418 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The pleasant weather of yesterday and today will continue for the
rest of the work-week. A large upper trough covering the eastern U.S
with its abnormally cool and dry weather will maintain control on
our weather while keeping the upper level ridge over the western U.S.
This is an extremely similar pattern to what we saw in mid-July.
Models show little change in the 925mb thru 850mb thermal pattern
which bodes well for going with persistence with a slight upward
tick as the airmass slowly moderates.

Models not performing too well wrt qpf as they`ve been generating
spurious light showers which have yet to materialize. Only the NAM
picked upon the isentropically driven altocu and light showers over
eastern KS earlier today. Satellite imagery does show a moderately
strong shortwave rotating into CO which the circulation around the
deep upper low southeast Canada will turn southeast tonight. The
expected convective complex is expected to pass southeast of the CWA
with only very low PoPs painted over the far southwestern counties.
Should see diurnal cumulus again Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain pleasant...especially at night...with low
humidity levels. Went with persistence +1 as the airmass begins to
moderate.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Friday:

The upper level pattern will remain unchanged from the short-term
period with upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS and upper
level ridging over the west. The area will remain under cool
northwest flow and as such, temperatures will continue to remain
below normal. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday - Sunday:

This will be a transition period in the persistent pattern
highlighted above. There are some discrepancies between models in
this period as the GFS and GEM are showing stronger troughing from
the Great Lakes region to the Ohio River Valley. This would keep
continued northwest flow across the area whereas the EC relaxes the
northwest flow aloft through this period as the eastern trough
weakens. Opted for the slightly cooler ALLBLEND during this period
to account for for the persistent troughing highlighted by the GFS
and GEM. Regardless we should experience a minor warmup through this
period with highs rising into the mid 80s area-wide by Sunday.
Conditions should remain dry through the weekend.

Monday - Tuesday:

Temperatures should return to near normal by the beginning of next
week as the western ridge begins to build eastward and starts to
impinge on the local area. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
to near 90. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
by Tuesday but extended range models are hinting that an approaching
cold front may hang north of the area keeping conditions dry
through out the extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR conditions/light winds with scattered/broken afternoon cumulus
dissipating around sunset at KMCI/KMKC. Looks like a repeat of MVFR river
valley/steam fog at KSTJ as pre-dawn air temperatures drop well below
nearby river temperatures which are in the upper 70s. Should be a
brief window for this fog which dissipates around sunrise.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...MJ





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