Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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907
FXUS63 KEAX 270821
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Eastward moving MCS is moving into an increasingly poor
environment where instability was mostly used up/eroded by earlier
convection. But ample moisture and slow movement may result in
additional flooding problems across the Kansas City area, especially
those areas that saw heavy rainfall earlier in the night. The
rainfall from this MCS will aid the already anomalously high
precipitable water values. We should see values exceeding the 90th
percentile, and likely around 99th across the forecast area. This
sets the stage for additional rounds of heavy/efficient rainfall.
The main question is where and when as short-range models have
struggled handling the nightly MCSs in this pattern. Models are all
hinting at a boundary draped over the forecast area by this
afternoon. This could act as a focus for additional storms but
overall confidence is low on where this would occur. While the
threat of severe storms looks lower today than it did yesterday, it
can`t be ruled out, especially late this afternoon through this
evening when instability may be maximized. But this will depend on
when morning convection moves out and if storms develop during the
day and muddy the environment up. While there is quite a bit of
uncertainty with timing of additional rounds of storms today, the
pre-existing conditions and high available moisture in the atmosphere
suggest there is continued potential for flash flooding. So will
extend the flash flood watch through Saturday morning.

The wet pattern looks to persist Saturday as we`ll have a shortwave
trough move through the area, helping to trigger more rounds of
storms. However, in the wake of this wave we may see a relatively
quiet Sunday. There will be a quick recovery into the Plains though
and if those storms can congeal into a complex we may see
additional storms Sunday night. Overall, the threat of severe storms
looks low this weekend as the strongest instability builds to our
west and shear is relatively weak due to relatively weak flow aloft.

It continues to look unsettled through much of next week. The upper
pattern will generally feature a trough to our west and southwesterly
flow aloft. However the threat of anything severe at this point
looks low as winds aloft continue to relatively weak over our area
and the strongest instability gets focused to our west.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A line of storms will move into the area between 07Z and 09Z,
although they should be weakening as they do. None-the-less there
will likely be temporary visibility and ceiling restricts as well as
gusty westerly winds. After this line moves through low MVFR ceilings
should spread over the area for the rest of the morning. These will
lift to VFR by the afternoon. However, the atmosphere will likely
become unstable again and as a result another round of storms is
possible.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



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