Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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074
FXUS63 KEAX 240359
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1059 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2017

Pleasant conditions will continue both today and tomorrow as a
remnant surface ridge continues to push eastward. Ongoing subsidence
will maintain clear skies through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. A weak 850 hPa thermal ridge atop calm surface winds will
push Sunday afternoon highs into the low to perhaps mid 70s,
particularly across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Southerly
return flow will return to the region heading into the evening hours
as the surface ridge advects eastward and gives way to strengthening
surface low pressure lifting into the Central Plains Monday.

While conditions will remain dry for Monday, the caveat to the
ideal weather is gusty southerly surface winds expected to
commence by the mid to late morning, persisting through sunset.
May see wind gusts approach 30 to 35 mph during peak heating
Monday afternoon. Adequate mixing will also help to nudge Monday
temperatures up slightly compared to Sunday underneath a thin
cirrus canopy, generally rising into the low to mid 70s across the
local area. Warm advection will continue well into Tuesday ahead
of the next storm system, which may begin to impact the CWA as
early as Tuesday morning. At that time, a broad mid to upper level
trough will develop over the Central Rockies, and send several
impulses overhead early Tuesday. This energy, coupled with a
diffuse warm front across northern Missouri, will bring a chance
of precipitation across northwest Missouri Tuesday morning,
though better forcing for widespread precipitation will hold off
until Tuesday evening. A PV anomaly will then advect overhead as a
cold front across southeastern Nebraska begins to converge into
the existing warm sector Tuesday night. While a capped environment
will limit widespread convection ahead of the cold front, this
should erode Tuesday evening into the overnight as the boundary
crosses into northwest Missouri. The area with the greatest chance
of severe potential will reside south and southwest of the I- 70
corridor, where MLCAPE values will approach 1000 J/kg. This will
also coincide with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-
level flow, supporting 0-6 km shear values of 50+ knots. Should
the timing of the frontal passage occur earlier, severe potential
will increase with greater instability more capable of supporting
deep convection. Large hail will be the greatest threat along the
boundary, in addition to isolated strong wind gusts. Post-frontal
precip may continue behind the exiting surface low Wednesday,
though generally thinking this will remain over central Iowa
during that time. Wednesday will mark the coolest day of the
forecast period in the wake of the cold front, as unseasonably
cool temperatures stay in the low to mid 50s for most areas during
the afternoon.

The active pattern will briefly subside Thursday before storm
chances resume on Friday, extending well into the weekend. Will need
to monitor the potential for severe weather with what appears to be
a dynamic upper-level system, in addition to hydrologic concerns
with a multi-day precipitation event.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will
increase rapidly after sunrise as strong low level winds move into
the area ahead of a cold front over the central plains. Winds will
remain out of the south with sustained winds 15-20kts and gusts
near 30kts for most of the day. As the surface winds decrease
after sunset some LLWS can be expected in the lower 1000-1500ft of
the atmosphere with 35kt winds at that altitude.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Barham/Cutter



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