Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201719

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 332 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

Coldest day of the next 7 days will be today --highs in the 50s and
low 60s--, but we are expecting a return to nice, if above normal,
temperatures for the weekend much of next week. Water vapor imagery
this morning shows a progressive longwave trough shifting across the
Plains States. The low level jet associated with this trough has
kept showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri
yesterday through the early morning hours, with a secondary area of
light rain in eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas thanks to the
frontogenic forcing along a secondary cold front that will sweep
into the region today.

The showers sliding into far northwest Missouri will slowly
dissipate through the morning hours as forcing along this secondary
boundary lets up; however, a few showers or sprinkles will be
possible through the morning hours. The cool air that the north
winds will bring today will suppress afternoon highs, keeping today`s
readings a bit below normal. This cool spell will result in lows
Thursday morning in the mid to upper 30s across the region. Current
projections indicate that it wont be cold enough for a freeze,
though some frost may be possible thanks to clear skies and calm

The cool weather wont last long as the progressive trough`s axis,
that is allowing the cool air to spill south, will move to our east
later tonight placing Kansas and Missouri under the expanding
influence of an upper level ridge. This will allow temperatures to
start creeping back up on Friday -highs in the 60s-, but the notable
warmup to above normal temperatures will occur over the weekend with
70s expected for afternoon highs. This run of above normal
temperatures looks to run well into next week with 70s for highs.
Next chance for widespread rain looks to wait till the later half of
next week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

Scattered showers should exit central MO by 19z with clearing skies
spreading southeast across northern and west central MO and eastern
KS. VFR conditions expected during this forecast period although some
concern that NE/SD low-end MVFR stratus could work into northwest MO
very late tonight. Models probably not handling this thin band of
moisture very well but do think it will stay north and west of the
TAF sites. Nevertheless will pass along to next shift to monitor
this stratus and adjust forecasts accordingly.




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