Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250231

831 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Issued at 831 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain is coming in a bit heavier than previously
thought and has been able to penetrate dry air at the surface. Still,
upstream observations indicate only one or two hundredths of an inch
of rain will fall from this activity, if that. Could see light rain
or sprinkles make it as far east as central MO later this evening.
Temperatures further upstream across Nebraska and the Dakotas are
warmer than many models had indicated. Near-term models such as the
RAP and HRRR seem to have a better grasp on this, so these were used
to update temperatures overnight and into Sunday morning which do not
appear as supportive of snow over northern MO. Still could see a few
flakes across these areas especially after 10 AM or so.


Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Many radar returns over KS/NE are not reaching the ground, and light
showers may not make it into the KC area until after sunrise. Even
then, activity should be scattered and light with few impacts to
airport operations. Any precipitation that makes it as far south and
west as KC is expected to be all rain, with perhaps some snow mixed
in further north toward STJ and IRK.




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