Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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709
FXUS63 KEAX 222115
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CST WED FEB 22 2017

Fire weather continues to be a concern over the next few hours as
temperatures soar and relative humidity drops throughout the CWA.
Winds will gradually diminish as a weak frontal boundary stalls
across the area and surface convergence lessens, but Red Flag
criteria may be briefly reached before winds fully diminish.

Main concern with this forecast issuance is the potential for a
few isolated storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Surface low
pressure currently building in the lee side of the Rockies will
eject northeastward tonight, pushing the stalled boundary back to
the north as a warm front on Thursday. Light rain showers and
significant cloud cover are expected to develop ahead of the
surface low tonight in a region of elevated WAA, and will likely
limit surface-based instability throughout the day, as well as
promote the persistence of a capping inversion. However, elevated
instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 60 kts of deep layer shear could
still support the development of some elevated strong storms along
and near the warm front, and bears watching tomorrow as precip
develops. The progression of the surface low has slowed slightly
and therefore the warm front may hang a bit further south during
the day, so have lowered temperatures a smidge in all but far
southern portions of the CWA.

Once the surface low does push through the CWA, more seasonable
temperatures are expected to follow behind for the weekend. Most
accumulating wintry wrap-around precipitation should stay mostly
north of the forecast area, and while a second, oddly phased
system continues to look possible on Sunday or Sunday night,
temperatures should stay warm enough to stay mostly rain. Highs
will rebound back into the 50s and 60s by the beginning of next
work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Scattered
to broken cirrus will continue to stream across areas mainly along
and south of I-70, with bases around or slightly above 20 kft.
Winds will continue to gust out of the southwest ahead of a south-
eastward moving cold front, but gusts should start to drop off
during the mid and especially late afternoon near the frontal
boundary. Winds will be light and variable overnight before
increasing out of the east tomorrow morning.

As a warm front develops and begins to lift northward on Thursday
morning, thicker stratus will build and ceilings will gradually
lower. A few showers or perhaps even isolated storms are possible
by 18z at the KC-area terminals, but the higher probability of
precipitation will occur at KSTJ and points northward during the
afternoon and early evening. Have not mentioned precipitation in
any of the TAFs at this point, but will continue to monitor for
future forecast issuances.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 1141 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

A narrow corridor of very dry and breezy conditions will exist
along and just ahead of a southeastward-moving "cold" front this
afternoon. RHs are expected to drop below 25-30% as temperatures
warm this afternoon, and may be coincident with winds in excess of
20 mph for a 1-2 hour period before winds lessen again with the
arrival of the weak front. Red Flag criteria may be briefly
reached in this corridor, which is currently positioned over
northwest MO and will progress southeastward toward the KC metro
over the next 1-3 hours. Burning is highly discouraged even as
winds diminish this afternoon and evening, due to very low fuel
moisture and the dry low-level atmosphere.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Fire Weather...Laflin



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