Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211730

1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Light southeast winds and VFR conditions will continue as high
pressure over the region slowly shifts east. Expect increasing clouds
around 5k ft to spread eastward across eastern KS/western MO early
Wednesday morning. Could see isolated very light showers from southeast
NE into northwest MO during this time.




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