Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221702
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Today looks to be the last quiet day for a while, thanks to an
upper-level ridge overhead, downstream of a large trough over the
western U.S. Subsidence within the ridge will provide mostly sunny
skies through the afternoon while return southerly low-level flow
allows temperatures to rise to near 80 degrees across most of the
forecast area.

Upper ridge will shift to the east tonight, allowing southwesterly
upper-level flow to develop across the Plains. This pattern looks to
stay fairly persistent throughout the remainder of the week, which
will likely result in numerous rounds of thunderstorms as several
embedded disturbances track across the area. Unfortunately the subtle
nature of these disturbances combined with several complicating
factors such as the presence of a capping inversion and the impact any
convective clusters may have on subsequent instability will play
havoc on the predictability of storms this week. Therefore any real
severe storm potential will have to be analyzed on a day-by-day
basis, although the potential is there for strong to severe storms to
develop any day this week depending on the aforementioned factors.

The first round of thunderstorms may spread into eastern KS and
western MO late tonight into Monday morning as convective activity
across the High Plains spreads eastward overnight. However, this
activity may struggle as it pushes into western MO Monday morning
due to weak instability and even weaker shear. Depending on how
clouds/precip hang around through the day, an increasingly unstable
airmass Monday afternoon could spark off a few more showers and
thunderstorms later on in the day. Shear will remain rather weak so
any storms that do develop are unlikely to be very strong. A better
chance for storms may arrive Monday night into early Tuesday when a
low-level jet looks to strengthen across the area.

Additional activity Tuesday and Wednesday may be focused mostly to
our west through the daytime hours and roll into our area later in
the evening/overnight, although the possibility is there that capping
and the orientation of the LLJ could cause this activity to spread
further north into NE/IA. A more potent wave could then bring more
organized activity into the area Thursday night and/or Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of today with ESE
winds becoming S through the period. Scattered upper level clouds
will pass through the area associated with convection to the west.
Precipitation chances should hold off until early Monday afternoon,
though depending on how quickly dry air aloft is overcome, showers
may develop by late Monday morning. Low- level stratus will develop
by the mid-morning hours ahead of this activity.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Welsh



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