Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 282319

519 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.




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