Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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626
FXUS63 KEAX 201740
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1140 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2018

GOES-East satellite imagery showing low clouds developing on
schedule this morning as moisture return is now becoming better
defined across the Central Plains and lower Missouri Vly. This
leads to a challenging high temp forecast today as this morning`s
statistical guidance has warmed several degrees over yesterday`s
values. Considering we`re starting out fairly warm with temps in
the lower 40s right now, have decided to bump a few degrees on to
today`s forecast with upper 40s to low 50s expected across much of
the area. Periods of drizzle will also be possible today into
tonight as low clouds stick around, however this activity should
remain fairly light.

Precip chances to increase across the board by Sunday afternoon as
a strong cold front begins sliding through the area. This will
all occur in association with a leeside low pressure center
as it lifts from the southern High Plains into eastern Kansas and
southeast Nebraska by 06z Monday. As highlighted in recent
discussions, very weak instability immediately ahead of this front
may set off a few late afternoon and evening thunderstorms
primarily east of the Route 65 corridor. That said however, poor
instability generation resulting from a lingering low stratus deck
appears to be the main limiting factor preventing a bigger severe
weather threat, and the SPC day 2 outlook continues to keep the
marginal risk area to our south. Much of our region then looks to
get dryslotted by daybreak Monday which will gradually give way
to rain changing over to light snow showers later Monday morning
as the main deformation band moves through. Light QPF should keep
any snowfall relatively light with maybe a few tenths to an inch
possible up along the Iowa border. Otherwise, cold air to settle
into the area on Monday with dry weather then expected though much
of the remainder of the fcst period. Next chance for organized
precip looks to hold off until next weekend with a nice warming
trend appearing likely or the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2018

MVFR ceilings look to remain in the area through the TAF period
with a chance for IFR conditions overnight and into Sunday
morning. There is a decent amount of uncertainty in the forecast
after sunset as much of the guidance is not in agreement on what
will occur as a warm front approaches the area. The best chance
for IFR ceilings and some drizzle with reduced MVFR visibility
will occur as the warm front passes through between 6-15z. The
lower ceilings may stall in the area, but for now the feeling is
that they will stay up along northern Missouri with the warm front
allowing the ceilings to rise as temperatures rise tomorrow mid
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Barham



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