Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260529
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Mid lvl clouds have filtered into the terminals tonight ahead of a
cold front. Top down saturation will allow precipitation to form at
the terminals in the form of rain mixing with snow. No accumulation
is expected at the terminals as pcpn will be lgt and temps will
remain abv freezing. Pcpn will begin at the terminals btn 08Z-09Z
with a ovc cloud deck btn 3-4kft. A cold front will pass thru the
terminals btn 12Z-14Z veering winds from the SSW around 10kts to the
WNW as MVFR cigs build in behind the front. MVFR cigs will persist
thru the day before lifting out to around 5kft around 00Z. Winds will
also pick up out of the NW late this morning btn 15-20kts with gusts
up to 30kts until around sunset when it will diminish to around
10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73





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