Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 110910

410 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014

Issued at 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

Hot and humid will characterize the next couple of days, though a
cool front and stormy conditions over the weekend will herald a
pleasant cool down for next work week.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a rather zonal flow in place
across the Plains States, even as a notable shortwave trough swings
east through the Canadian Plains. Also of note is a rather dirty
looking ridge well to our west, over the eastern Pacific, poking
north into the Canadian West Coast. Lee side troughing across the
western Plains, induced by the Canadian Plains trough, has resulted
in some convection early this morning across Nebraska with the help
of the nocturnal jet. However, dry air in place across eastern
Kansas and Missouri in combination with a lack of any focusing
features has kept our region clear of any storms thus far this
morning. However, the eastern edge of nocturnal low level jet looks
to be inducing enough moisture convergence to generate some
mid-level clouds early this morning across eastern Kansas. GFS is
currently the only model advertising any morning storms, so will
hold off putting POPs back in for the morning hours, but will keep
an eye on it.

Otherwise, expect warm air moving in aloft with the southwest H8-H7
flow to cap off the environment across much of Kansas and Missouri
today into Saturday morning; likely forcing any potential convection
to remain north of the Missouri-Iowa border through today and the
first half of Saturday. This will keep temperatures hot and humid as
H8 temperatures bubble up into the 20+ centigrade range, resulting
in highs in the 90s in most locations by Saturday afternoon.

However, over the weekend the pattern will adjust significantly,
resulting in some potential for stormy weather and seriously nice
mid-July temperatures next week. Over the next two days, while we
are dealing with the typical summer heat and humidity, the ridge
over the eastern Pacific will continue to amplify; dumping energy
into a trough across Canada, helping deepen it. This will, in turn,
push a cold front south into Missouri and Kansas Sunday into Monday
with the activity along the baroclinic zonal to our north, across
Nebraska and Iowa, settling south into eastern Kansas and Missouri
accordingly. Currently, highest potential for stormy activity looks to
wait till Monday as the main axis of the trough pivoting into the
Great Lakes swings through the Plains States, but activity will be
possible anytime from Saturday afternoon through Sunday and into
Monday as the frontal boundary slowly settles south interacting with
the instability in place. Sever potential looks best in the Saturday
night to Sunday time frame owing to the combination of instability
and shear along the front as it settles south.

Lastly, cool temperatures --by July`s standards-- still look to
prevail next week. Tuesday and Wednesday may see temperatures
flirting with record low highs, in the 70s, and overnight lows in
the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Any isolated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain to the north/west of terminals during
the early morning hours. A couple models hint at patchy fog or haze
prior to sunrise, but confidence not high enough for reductions in
visibility at TAF sites. Otherwise, surface winds will veer and
increase in speed post-sunrise.




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