Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 192335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tonight: Low stratus has remained in place through the day, with
pockets of patchy drizzle and fog. Little change is expected
overnight, with low clouds remaining in place. Patchy fog will be
possible across the forecast area tonight, although the most
widespread and dense fog should be to the west of the CWA over
portions of central Kansas and central Nebraska. Model cross
sections reveal the deepest low-level moisture to remain over the
eastern half of the forecast area. Additionally, this area will be
collocated with periodic weak low-level ascent overnight, suggesting
the highest potential for drizzle will remain over the southeast
half of the CWA. Temperatures across the area will remain fairly
steady, only falling a few degrees overnight from current values.
Areas with the highest probability of drizzle (SE 1/2 CWA) should
generally remain at or above freezing overnight. Will closely
monitor outskirts of highest drizzle potential where slightly colder
temperatures will reside, but believe the overall threat/impact of
freezing drizzle appears low tonight based on anticipated minimum
temperatures and primary drizzle domain.

Saturday/Sunday: The upper pattern flattens on Saturday with low
clouds expected to remain in place through much of the day. There is
a slight chance some areas may mix sufficiently to allow a few peaks
of sun by tomorrow afternoon as the low-level saturation becomes
shallower. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with
highs reaching the upper 30s to middle 40s. The majority of any
remnant drizzle or fog should end by mid morning, with patchy
drizzle not returning until late Saturday night into Sunday as
additional warm air advection and ascent arrive. Highs on Sunday
will continue to warm into the middle to upper 40s, along with
surface moisture steadily increasing.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: The upper pattern will transition by
early next week, with a 140+kt upper jet diving towards the front
range of the Rockies. An upper trough will amplify with a series of
vorticity maximums rotating around the upper low. Precipitation
chances will increase Sunday night and especially on Monday as
strong upper ascent and a surface cold front moves through the area.
Precipitation is expected to be in the from of rain as all the
lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm sector. Drier air
will move in behind the front Monday evening, bringing an end to the
most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and
model soundings show much of northwest Missouri to support snow or a
rain-snow mix during this time. With model differences and details
still unresolvable, it is too early to determine snow specifics, but
accumulations look to be on the light side, if any. As for
temperatures Tuesday, a much colder day is expected with afternoon
readings generally in the 30s with cloudy skies and breezy
northwesterly winds.

Extended: Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will initially be
near seasonal averages, with readings gradually warming. The
forecast is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Models
have diverged with the behavior of the shortwave trough that moves
from northern California on Wednesday and moving into the Plains on
Thursday and Friday, with a large spread on the degree of
amplification over the region by Friday. Likewise, this has a
significant determination to the anticipated weather and
precipitation chances. The general track of the system would keep
the forecast area in the warm sector, yielding warmer temperatures
and primarily a rain-type event. Still, a good deal of uncertainty
remains and will closely watch the evolution of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate this evening
and overnight into the IFR or LIFR categories at all TAF sites. Some
light patchy drizzle is possible along with the patchy fog, but
should slide east of the terminals with time and is not expected to
create any impact. Ceilings will gradually lift during the late
morning hours Saturday, but will likely remain IFR through most of
the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin





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