Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

The main feature of interest for the remainder of the work week will
be a nearly stacked low east of the area that will keep the region
under cool northerly flow. This low which is centered over Lake
Michigan this morning will sink southward today and tonight into the
central Ohio River Valley. A cold front associated with this system
is dropping through the CWA early this morning. This will allow cool
air to advect in behind it with highs today in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday through Saturday morning the low will remain anchored over
the central Ohio River Valley perhaps even retrograding to the west
a bit on Friday bringing additional cloud cover to eastern CWA.
However, conditions will remain dry. Temperatures will warm a degree
or two each day heading into the weekend with highs in the lower 70s
by Friday.

Saturday the stacked low will finally shift northeast as surface
high pressure builds into the region the for weekend. Temperatures
on Saturday will remain near normal in the lower 70s. Temperatures
will warm on Sunday as upper level shortwave ridging builds into the
area in response to a upper trough digging into the central Rockies.
Highs Sunday will be in the mid 70s. Monday, WAA gets underway out
ahead of the approaching upper level trough with temperatures rising
into the mid 70s to near 80. Rain chances will be on the increase
Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough moves into the western
Plains and a associated cold front moves into the central Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the forecast
period...however early morning fog will be possible Thursday morning.
In the meantime...northerly winds of 10-15 kts will weaken this
evening under mostly clear skies aloft. Weak winds combined with
falling temps will allow dewpoint values to drop near or below
afternoon crossover temps...setting the stage for developing VSBY
restrictions after 09z. For now...have hit STJ with
VSBY restrictions...however confidence at MCI remains too low at this
point to include this far out in the forecast period. Will upcoming
shifts the opportunity to view later model runs before making any
final decisions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...32



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