Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210513
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg





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