Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200807

307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.




AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.