Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2017

Broken record with regards to the continued unseasonably warm
temperatures. Upper pattern favors these readings which are well
above seasonal levels to persist through late next work week. High
temperatures in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s can be
expected today through Thursday - some 20 degrees or more above
average.

For today, a cold front located just northwest of the CWA will slide
into northern Missouri. The only notable effect will be slightly
cooler high temperatures north of Interstate 70, with readings
in these areas maxing out in the middle to upper 60s - lower 70s
elsewhere. Moisture will continue to stream into the area with
afternoon dewpoints in the middle to upper 40s along and south of
the front. A weaker wind field is also expected with the frontal
boundary placement, and this along with increased relative
humidity will mitigate fire weather concerns today. The front
lifts north of the area on Sunday, with dewpoints continuing to
rise into the lower to middle 50s by sunset.

The next chance for precipitation arrives Sunday night into Monday
as a large upper trough approaches the Central Plains. This event by
no means will bring a lot of rainfall, in fact less than one-quarter
inch, but should provide at least some light rain for the area. The
biggest limiting factor is the track of both respective upper lows
within the trough - one that ejects into the Dakotas and the other
that resides along the Southern Plains and GOM region. The greatest
ascent associated within this broad trough will pass to the north
and south of the forecast area, resulting in the heaviest rainfall
to remain outside of the CWA. A Pacific cold front moves through
Monday evening, ending precipitation chances but doing little to
cool temperatures on Tuesday. A second round of precipitation is
expected Thursday into Friday. Operational models are in modest
agreement with timing and position of a dynamic negatively-tilted
trough ejecting into the Central Plains. Still a long way out, but
potential for thunderstorms with this system in the warm sector,
and later potential wrap-around wintry precipitation as the low
departs.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 508 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2017

VFR conditions expected through much of the period with variable
surface winds. Stratus expected to develop/move into terminals
after midnight tonight, with conditions reduced to at least MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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