Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 040021
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
721 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
Issued at 218 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
An upper-level ridge axis currently over eastern Kansas will
continue to provide subsidence over the CWA through Saturday.
Moisture advection ahead of a shortwave feature over the northwestern
High Plains will continue to aid in the development of low-level
stratus over much of Kansas through the day. This should be contained
to the west of the CWA along the periphery of the ridge axis, with
resulting abundant sunshine in place over northwest and central
Missouri. At the surface, winds will continue out of the northeast,
keeping afternoon highs down to the mid 60s.
A deep low in the southeastern CONUS will continue to circulate
through the weekend and pull a low-level stratus layer into the
eastern CWA Saturday night. Overnight lows outside of this affected
area will drop into the low 40s, with areas underneath the cloud
cover reaching the mid 40s. Cloud cover will linger through much of
Sunday over central Missouri, and will gradually work its way west
leading into Monday.
As the new week commences, a mid-level trough currently located over
the Pacific Northwest will deepen as it moves into the southwest.
This will bring about a gradual warming trend with southwest flow
aloft as mid-week temperatures return to the upper 70s to low 80s.
The deep trough will continue to slide into Texas and then Mexico by
the mid-week. All activity associated with this feature looks to
remain south of the CWA. However, both the GFS and ECMWF advertise a
shortwave trough developing to the north of this deeper wave and
will send a weak cold front into the Central Plains by the latter
half of the week. Scattered showers, particularly north of I-70 will
develop along the cold front, and weak instability could produce
some embedded thunderstorms as well.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
Expect VFR for the remainder of the forecast period. Models
indicating some low level moisture possibly bringing some reduced
VSBY overnight, but anticipation is that winds will remain strong
enough in the 5 to 10 kt range to keep the atmosphere adequately
mixed enough to prevent any fog formation. Thereafter just looking at
some low level clouds around 4 to 5 kft.