Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261502
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.

As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel


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