Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211726

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Issued at 343 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

Early morning impacts will reside with the potential for dense fog
as upper-level cloud cover clears from west to east overhead
residual low-level moisture. Areas that have cleared have
undergone sufficient cooling to dewpoint values, with resulting
dense fog quickly developing. For now, this has been limited to
areas across southeastern Kansas, in addition to areas over
southwestern Iowa. Will need to monitor the eastward push of cloud
cover through Tuesday morning before surface temperatures
increase after sunrise.

An upper level low will continue to become detached from the main
flow through the mid-week. The associated moisture band and light
precipitation will exit the forecast area by the mid-morning
hours, with clearing sky conditions prevailing over the next
couple of days. A weak cold front will cross over northwestern
Missouri today before stalling near central Missouri. This will
provide a brief period of northwesterly surface flow before zonal
flow aloft rebuilds over the Central Plains and southwesterly
surface flow returns to the area by the afternoon. With ample
sunshine and a return of warm advection in the wake of the exiting
storm system, temperatures will rebound slightly from yesterday,
climbing into the lower 70s. Southwesterly surface flow will pull
dry air back into the region, and dewpoints will once again dip
into the upper 30s. Fire weather danger will be marginally
heightened today with warming temperatures and decreased relative
humidity values in the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, calm
surface winds will help to minimize the full potential of fire
weather concerns for at least today. Dry southwesterly flow will
persist into Wednesday, with wind gusts expected to approach 20 to
25 mph in response to a tightening PGF as a surface low matures
over the Northern Plains. This will make for the most likely
period of fire weather danger through the week as record-breaking
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to perhaps upper
70s Wednesday.

By Thursday morning, a cold front will stall across northern
Missouri ahead of a weak shortwave over the Northern Plains. This
will present a sharp thermal gradient with regard to afternoon highs
Thursday, with temps ranging from the upper 50s across northern
Missouri and rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas south
of I-70. Also, a broad upper level trough situated over the western
CONUS will form a surface low over western Kansas during this time.
This feature will lift a warm front into northern Missouri by
Thursday afternoon and will bring the next chance of precipitation
into the area, generally north of I-70, beginning Thursday
afternoon. The attendant cold front will push through
northwestern Missouri early Friday, though limited mid to upper
level moisture ahead of the boundary will maintain chances of
precip closer to the warm front across areas north of I-70.
Additional moisture along the backside of the surface low will
provide a brief period of additional precipitation late Friday
into Saturday over this area. Wintry precipitation is possible
Friday night within a cooling thermal profile, though, with the
exception of extreme northern Missouri, accumulating snowfall is
not anticipated.

Temperatures will remain closer to seasonal values as cold advection
persists over the area through much of the weekend. The relatively
active pattern will then continue with additional chances of
precipitation returning by the early work week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period as thicker cloud
cover associated with the upper low over the eastern LA/AR region
remains southeast of the terminals. Winds will be light through
the day, varying in direction from northeast to northwest before
gradually increasing out of the southwest during the early morning
hours. Gustier southwest winds are expected just beyond the end
of the TAF period on Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 417 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

Fire weather danger will be marginally heightened today as dry air
begins to return to the area this afternoon. Relatively calm
surface winds will minimize the full potential of fire weather
concerns for today, however. By Wednesday, persistent
southwesterly flow and afternoon mixing will pull dewpoints down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s with surface winds increasing to
10 to 15 mph. Afternoon highs will rise into the mid to perhaps
upper 70s with relative humidity values decreasing into mid to
upper 20s. The aforementioned will equate to elevated fire weather
potential Wednesday. Conditions will then improve by the late
week as moisture and increasing humidity returns to the area.




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