Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210434
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Upper ridge responsible for this afternoon`s anomalously warm mid-
September temperatures will flatten a bit on Wednesday, yielding
temperatures about 2 to 3 degrees cooler for Weds afternoon. This
flattening of the ridge will also allow a weak shortwave trough to
track to the north Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday. Most of
the synoptic-scale ascent with this feature will be focused across
Nebraska and Iowa, which combined with a capping inversion over KS
and MO will keep most of the area dry as this system passes through.
Still can`t rule out a few stray showers or storms late Weds night
and early Thurs morning on the heels of the upper wave, mainly across
far northwest Missouri.

Ridging will return to the Central Plains Thursday and Friday and
will keep skies mostly clear both days. While temperatures won`t
reach as warm as today`s readings, they`ll still stay several degrees
above average with highs in the middle 80s. By Saturday a deep upper
trough will settle into the Rockies bringing much cooler air to that
region. The leading edge of this cooler airmass will arrive into our
area Saturday night into Sunday when a cold front will slowly push
through. Much of the upper-level forcing associated with this system
will bypass the area to the north, so the dynamics for widespread
strong storms don`t appear to be in place this weekend. May still
have have to watch for some locally heavy rain given the slow
eastward progression of the front and precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches in spots.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only some high
level clouds and light south winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB



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