Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 292118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

Weather conditions will look to remain quiet through the second
half of the work week with a return to near normal temperatures. The
main feature is an upper level low which is located across Minnesota
today. This feature will slowly move to western Wisconsin by
tomorrow afternoon. This will force the trough axis through the area
and leave us under northwest flow aloft. In addition to northwest
flow aloft, cloud cover will filter into the area on the back side
of this system making for a cloudy and cool day tomorrow. Expect
seasonably cool highs in the low to mid 40s. Northwest flow aloft
become more zonal on Thursday with cool surface high pressure
building into the area. Highs again will generally remain in the low
to mid 40s. The surface ridge of high pressure will remain over the
area on Friday keeping temperatures in the low to mid 40s.

More active weather will transpire as we move into the weekend.
Models are pretty consistent in depicting an upper level trough
digging south over the western CONUS eventually closing off a low
over Baja California. Meanwhile, locally on the day Saturday, high
pressure will continue to dominate until late in the day will highs
continuing to stay in the low to mid 40s. Saturday night a week
trough will move across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
The EC is a bit stronger with this trough than the GFS and
consequently the EC produces precipitation with this trough whereas
the GFS just has precipitation skirting the southern CWA. As such,
have slight chance north to chance POPs south. Conditions look to
remain mild enough for precipitation to remain all rain however the
northern CWA may see some very light snow with little to no
accumulation. That system will exit the area by Sunday afternoon
with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Monday, the aforementioned
closed low over the Baja, will eject out into the southern Plains
and open. The GFS is slightly further south than the EC with this
feature and consequently keeps the bulk of the precipitation south
whereas the EC solution is wetter. Again, conditions look warm
enough to support all rain with perhaps a brief changeover across
northern Missouri on the back side of the system.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

Just a few high clouds are expected thru 08Z when cigs around 4kft
are expected to move into the terminals. Cigs lowering btn 2-3kft
is possible aft 15Z however, diurnal lifting may keep cigs VFR thru
the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds will be generally out of the WNW
btn 5-10kts today before backing to the west tonight while remaining
around 5-10kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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