Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 292110
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
410 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Issued at 410 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Tonight - Sunday...
Not much change in airmass over the CWA through tomorrow. Weak
surface cold front lies just east and south of the CWA will inch
southward overnight. A post frontal boundary/shear zone lies from
near IRK to around EAX. Have received a few reports of funnel clouds
near Odessa and Centerview. These funnels have formed along/near
this boundary where 500-800 J/kg have allowed for some weak lift to
form in conjunction with horizontal vorticity that has been slightly
tilted in the vertical. BTW, these are not cold-air funnels. Anyway
these conditions will end with loss of daytime heating.
Inspection of 12z TOP/OAX soundings depict a frontal inversion that
will persist into Sunday. Any moisture, i.e. clouds, that are unable
to scatter out will be trapped under this inversion. So, expectation
is now for considerable cloud cover to remain over the CWA through
the night before finally scattering out mid/late Sunday morning. ONe
can certainly make the case for stratus/fog forming overnight and
the fog is supported by the SREF visibility/ceiling forecast.
Should be able to warm up well into the 80s on Sunday given the
expected increase in sunshine and slightly warmer 925mb
Monday - Saturday...
The lack of a definitive shortwave trough passing nearby nor a front
highly favors an extended dry period. The operational models do
wobble today`s shortwave trough southward towards the Gulf Coast as
the upper flow becomes southwesterly from the Southern Rockies
northeast through the central U.S. Seasonably warm temperatures
expected with little day-to-day fluctuations due to neutral
advection during the period.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Trend in visible satellite imagery, surface obs and low-level
moisture fields favor a slow improvement in ceilings but remaining
MVFR north of a IRK to MCI line with VFR ceilings south of this line
through the early evening hours.
Don`t see much change in the airmass over the region for the next 24
hours and losing confidence that clouds will scatter out this
afternoon except over central MO. TOP sounding showed a pretty stout
frontal inversion and low level moisture will likely remain trapped
beneath it. With that in mind will trend lower on ceilings tonight
and drop them to IFR and borderline LIFR across northern and west
central MO. Anywhere where clouds can scatter out late tonight will
have to entertain dense fog. Ceilings will improve after sunrise and
expect ceilings to improve faster than today.