Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 120952
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
352 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 352 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2018

Satellite imagery shows a large shortwave trough, responsible for
the wintry weather and cold front that blasted through Thursday,
swinging east across the Central and Southern Plains early this
morning. The resulting meridional flow behind the cold front has
induced a strong northerly wind overnight with temperatures
dropping into the single digits early this morning, ultimately
resulting in a temperature swing of up to 40 degrees for many
sites across the region in the past 24 hours.

For what`s left of the work week and beginning of the weekend...it`s
going to be cold. The strong meridional flow across the Plains will
persist into the beginning of the weekend as a ridge amplifies along
the West Coast. This will keep our section of the country in the
freezer through Saturday, but then a shortwave trough will move
through late in the weekend, resulting in some undulating
temperatures a couple of chances for some snow.

A shortwave trough, currently off the northern coast of Alaska, will
dive into the larger trough across the Nations mid-section this
weekend. By Sunday, that trough will be zipping southeast across the
Plains, with many of the ensemble and operational model runs
advertising a bit of precipitation getting squeezed out with it.
The shortwave will help set the stage late Saturday into Sunday by
inducing a bit of warm air advection across the Central Plains,
helping bring a bit of moisture north for precipitation chances
Sunday morning along with slightly warmer temperatures.
Isentropic surfaces ahead of the shortwave indicate that there
will be sufficient lift for precipitation, but the given thermal
profile continues to indicate that snow is the only precipitation
type expected. However, the leading isentropically induced snow
likely wont be the only snow, as models point at a secondary surge
of cold air sweeping in behind the shortwave later that night,
with frontogenic forcing squeezing another band of snow early
Monday morning. These two rounds of snow, one Sunday morning and
the other Monday morning, may be able to bring between one and two
inches of snow to northern Missouri.

After the snowfall Sunday and Monday, temperatures will remain
rather cold as the meridional flow continues, but the later half of
next work week will likely see temperatures climb back out of the
freezer as the West Coast ridge breaks down and a somewhat more
zonal, or at least progressive, pattern takes over.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CST THU JAN 11 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Clear skies
will gradually be replaced by midlevel stratus building in from
the west Friday evening, with bases between 7-10 kft. Winds will
remain out of the NNW to N, at speeds between 10-15 kts and with
occasional gusts to 20-25 kts that will become less frequent by
daybreak.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin



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