Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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831
FXUS63 KEAX 290919
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
419 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 415 CDT THU JUN 29 2017

Last night`s activity is still making its way through the
northeastern part of the forecast area. These training storms
dropped an excessive amount of water across northern MO. Areas from
Burlington Junction, MO to Bethany, MO have received anywhere from 9-
11 inches of rain with surrounding areas in the 6-9 inch range. As a
result, flooding is an issue, so an Areal Flood warning is in
effect across this area until about 3:30 PM this afternoon. The
activity in the northeastern part of the forecast area should
continue to weaken and move southeast, exiting the area within the
next few hours. To our west, another cluster of storms has taken
shape. This is in response to another upper level shortwave moving
through in conjunction with the low level jet. This activity has
already begin moving into northeastern KS and northwestern MO and
is expected to move east through about dawn and then dissipate.
Another MCS is projected to move through northern KS and northern
MO later this morning as another shortwave, currently over
western KS, moves through. This will be in conjunction with a
developing surface low in southeastern KS and its associated warm
front. The storm system should move along the warm front, making
it near the KS/MO border around 9 AM. It should continue moving
east, north of the MO River, through late morning. Don`t
anticipate much in the way of severe weather, but can`t rule out
the potential for isolated hail and damaging winds. The bigger
concern will be the additional rainfall in an area that is already
experiencing flash and river flooding.

This afternoon, it looks like we may have similar set up to
yesterday afternoon/evening. It will, however, be contingent on
this morning`s systems. A boundary with warm front characteristics
seems to be the main focus for severe storm development this
afternoon and is likely to set up somewhere across northeastern KS
and northern MO, likely a little further south than yesterday`s
activity. At the same time another shortwave is projected to move
overhead. All of the ingredients for severe weather will be
available again today. SB CAPE will range from 2000-4000 J/kg, 0-6
km shear around 40 kts, with dewpoints in the low 70s again.
General model consensus depicts storms starting to develop this
afternoon (roughly 1-3 pm time frame) in northwest MO/northeast KS
and then moving southeast, potentially reaching the northern side
of the KC metro in the 4-6 PM time frame. All hazards, hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible, especially in
the SPC Enhanced Risk area. Further into the evening, as storms
move southeast, they will eventually form a line as the main upper
trough and surface cold front moves in, and low level jet ramps
up again. Widespread flash flooding and river flooding may be the
biggest concern, not only in northern MO, but also the KC Metro
and areas closer to the MO River because these storms will likely
not be moving very fast and PWAT values will be approaching 2
inches. Therefore, with what has already fallen and what is
projected to fall, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 7 AM
Friday morning, for most of our counties north of the MO River and
the KC Metro.

The storms and cold front should exit the area by Friday night and
a surface high will work its way south over the area. This will
leave Saturday cooler and dry. Friday`s cold front, which will
stall near the MO/AR border, will retreat north as a warm front
Sunday, returning on and off storm chances starting Sunday evening
through Wednesday.



&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

Storms will continue to trek north of the terminals tonight, but
will be watching for another area of storms to develop across
north central KS early this morning and push eastward toward all
TAF sites. Still uncertain if this will occur and where exactly it
will track so have stayed with VCTS during the 14z-18z timeframe,
but will refine with future amendments or issuances once storms
develop. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of
today, until storms begin to redevelop late this afternoon or
early this evening. Winds will remain out of the south southwest
and should begin to drop off to around 12 kts shortly, but will
increase slightly during the daylight hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ025-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ001>006-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Laflin



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