Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200440
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1140 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms earlier today have moved off toward the
east, leaving the forecast area dry by mid-afternoon. As a frontal
boundary drops south across the area tonight, could still perhaps
see some redevelopment overnight in the northeastern and eastern
portions of the forecast area, right along the edge of upper-level
ridging as a weak vort max rotates around. By mid-morning
tomorrow, any precip that developed should have exited from the
forecast area. The next better chances for showers and perhaps
thunderstorms appears overnight Monday into Tuesday and then again
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. There could be some additional
chances between those two time periods but the signals are
relatively weak in comparison. Zonal flow aloft over the region
initially this week will transition into a "ring of fire" setup
before a stout low pressure system/trough marches through by the
end of the week. For the precip chances through the middle of the
week, it`ll be due more to a somewhat unsettled pattern with weak
shortwaves traversing through. As the ridge axis amplifies toward
the end of the week, warm, moist air will advect in, allowing for
warm sector storms to potentially fire up before the main system
moves through. While there are differences of course in the ECMWF
and GFS with the details by then, it currently looks like they
both agree on precip clearing out by the latter half of next
weekend.

Temperatures tonight into tomorrow will be well above normal
despite the aforementioned front moving through tonight. However,
cooler, more seasonable temps move in for the middle of the week,
followed by another modest rise in the latter part of the week and
perhaps into the weekend. Could see some adjustments based on just
how much warm air advects in Thursday and Friday ahead of the
system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT SUN MAR 19 2017

The main impact through the overnight will be with the potential
for low-level wind shear as surface winds slacken underneath
sustained 40 kt winds between 1500 to 2000 ft. This will improve
by the mid-morning and VFR conditions will persist through the
remainder of the period. A cold front will turn winds
northwesterly by the afternoon hours Monday. Cloud cover will
begin to build toward the very end of the period, though still
anticipating VFR conditions until perhaps early Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Welsh



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