Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261109

609 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR expected through the period. Probability for shallow river fog at
STJ lower than previous two mornings. Gradual increase in some mid-
level clouds at the end of the period. Isolated convection expected
to remain west of terminals through 12Z Thu.




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