Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191130
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 428 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Next 24 hours looks a little stormy with a cool weekend to follow.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a large trough moving east
across Canada into the Hudson Bay. Lee side troughing across the
northern Plains States, in response to the Canadian trough, has
already helped establish a frontal boundary from eastern South Dakota
back into western Kansas with a warm front pointed east along the
Iowa-Minnesota border. The Canadian trough will continue its trek
east through weekend as a notable shortwave disturbance sweeps in
under the larger trough, helping amplify the Canadian trough as it
moves east of the Mississippi River later this weekend.

For today and through the weekend, the bit of shortwave energy,
dropping into Montana this morning, will help push the frontal
boundary out west towards northern Missouri through the day, likely
pushing the front to arrive in northwest Missouri late this
afternoon or this evening. Expect some thunderstorm activity to be
going up along the front as it arrives later today as the front will
be working into an environment advertised to have CAPE values
running above 2000 J/KG by this afternoon with 0-6KM shear values,
coincident with the better instability, looking to range between 20
and 30 knots. Add in precipitable water values around 2 inches, and
there is enough there to make one think that some severe threat will
accompany the storms late this afternoon or this evening. Main
threats are thought to be from large hail and damaging straight line
winds along with a flooding threat from torrential rain. Storms may
push into far northwest Missouri as early as 4 to 6 PM this evening,
taking much of the night to push east through Missouri with
lingering storms into the day Saturday. However, after tonight`s
activity expect a quite rest of the weekend as a cool surface high
oozes south, resulting in some very cool August temperatures; highs
in the 70s with lows into the 50s Saturday!

Next work week...our cool temperatures over the weekend will
moderate up a little, but still be rather nice for late August with
highs only in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Next shot at storms will
arrive mid-work week as another large trough works east across the
Canadian Plains, which might provide for more stormy weather during
the periods from Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Early this morning low, LIFR, clouds where working north; reaching
the southern side of the KC metro around sunrise. These clouds are
expected to lift and break up this morning, but not before impacting
airport operations for a couple of hours. Confidence on when CIGs
will improve is a bit low; so have left the LIFR conditions confined
to a couple hours this morning, improving CIGs into the MVFR range
by late this morning. Otherwise, later today expect a cold front to
sweep in today and tonight bringing thunderstorms. Currently, expect
stormy activity to potentially affect the terminals after 00z
tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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