Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
256 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 PM CST THU FEB 16 2017

Very unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend
with near record high temperatures likely. Record highs for Kansas
City are 74 for Friday through Sunday and 75 for Monday. Although
the chances for breaking a record Monday are much lower than through
the weekend due to increased cloud cover and precipitation chances.

The upper pattern has taken on a Rex Block look to it over the
middle country with water vapor imagery showing an upper-level high
over the northern Plains and a closed low over northern Mexico. With
our region in the upper high portion, it will ensure dry
conditions through the weekend. Deep mixing into very warm air
aloft will allow temperatures to climb to near record conditions
Friday through Sunday.

The upper low is forecast to slowly track to the east as the upper
ridge remains entrenched through the weekend. But by Monday, the
ridge will be cut into by an embedded upper trough. While models
have backed off on precipitation chances, there still looks like a
good chance for light rain and maybe a few storms Monday as the
system`s weak cold front moves into the area.

The rest of the forecast looks like a continuation of warm and dry
weather as broad upper ridging will remain in place. While beyond
our official forecast, it looks like a decent storm system will
impact the middle of the country Friday into Saturday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF indicate a strong upper shortwave with deep
cyclogenesis occurring. But the two models vary anywhere from Missouri
to South Dakota in the track of the surface low.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST THU FEB 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty
southwesterly winds this afternoon will diminish this evening and
remain southwesterly through the remainder of the forecast.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 347 AM CST THU FEB 16 2017

Critical fire danger will continue this afternoon with high
temperatures, very low humidity values and strong/gusty
southwesterly winds. Conditions will improve later this evening as
temperatures cool and humidity levels increase.

Fire danger should be lower on Friday although the antecedent
conditions should keep the risk in the high to very range. But with
higher moisture and lower winds, critical fire danger isn`t
expected. But given how dry things, care should be taken when
burning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB
Fire Weather...CDB



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