Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
531 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 248 AM CST THU FEB 15 2018

Warm temperatures will be the name of the game today out ahead of
a cold front that will move through the region later this
afternoon. That said, warm front over our region this morning
will not totally clear the CWA before the cold front arrives later
today, meaning there should be a pretty healthy temperature
gradient across our region. Right now, low 70s look more than
reasonable for areas south of Route 50, while low 50s look to be
realistic north of Route 36. Light rain/drizzle east of the KC
Metro should have little impact on the region later today as well,
so get out and enjoy the warm air if you can!

Front to move through the region by early evening with models
also showing what appears to be a secondary front that should move
south during the overnight period tonight. Behind this secondary
feature, gusty north winds will overspread the region with 25-30
mph gusts expected through early Friday before high pressure leads
to weakening speeds by early afternoon. The main interest item
for Friday will be the noticeably cooler temperatures as highs
Friday afternoon will only warm into the lower to middle 30s.
Fortunately this cooldown will be short lived as high pressure
marches east early Saturday which results in the return of
southerly winds for the start of the upcoming weekend. Earlier
model runs had been suggesting light rain showers for Saturday as
a weak disturbance skirted just to our south, however today`s runs
have kept the bulk of precipitation south of our area. As a
result, Saturday should be fairly pleasant with highs rebounding
into the lower 50s. Even warmer temperatures are expected by
Sunday, however rain looks to be possible once again Sunday night
into Monday as the next storm system begins impacting the area.
Took the liberty of increasing temps on Monday as a strong warming
trend is seen in available mid-range model solutions this
morning, and wouldn`t be surprised if temps need to be raised even
further with later forecasts. In any event, Monday looks to be
pretty wet across the area, and seeing we definitely could use
the moisture, Monday`s rains should be a welcomed site to many. As
cooler air works into the area Monday night, lingering rain
showers may briefly mix with snow, however little to no
accumulation is expected for the time being. From this point
forward, models begin to diverge on sensible weather impacts as we
head through the remainder of the work week. What does look for
certain however is that seasonable temperatures will persist
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST THU FEB 15 2018

Cold front to sag south across the region this afternoon leading
to a windshift from the northwest around 18z. Strong low-level
jet early this morning will lead to continued LLWS concerns
through 14z, before frontal trough weakens winds prior to frontal
passage. North winds will increase overnight following the passage
of a secondary front, with gusts to 30 kts possible through the
end of the forecast period. This may be accompanied by a brief
period of MVFR cigs, however confidence remains too low for a
mention this far out right now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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