Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 182056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

A seasonally cool area of high pressure over the Northern Plains
will press southward overnight into Tuesday yielding temperatures 5
to 10 degrees below average. Should see a gradual increase in higher
level clouds during the afternoon ahead of the next system.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows our next weather maker is now
over the western U.S. Currently a closed upper low with a negatively
tilted trough extending into northwest Mexico this feature will open
up over the next 2 days and lift northeast through the Central
Plains during this period. A broad and deep area of isentropic
ascent aided precipitation will spread across the CWA beginning late
Tuesday night and exit the region Wednesday afternoon. There are
strong signals with favorable run-to-run model continuity and
agreement between models to go with categorical PoPs. Lacking much
instability with a deep boundary layer showing easterly winds favors
a stratiform rain event with little if any thunder. Moderate rains
expected with an average of around an inch.

Due to an extensive precipitation shield and a cool easterly
boundary layer winds expect a minimal diurnal temperature range with
high temperatures 15-20 degrees below average.

Thursday - Friday:

A two-day break between systems with cool high pressure providing
below average temperatures from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Shortwave ridging will pass through the region and by Friday
increasing warm air advection aloft could generate some scattered
light afternoon showers over western MO.

Memorial Day Weekend:

Looks like an unsettled period as yet another upper level trough
lifts northeast out of CA and brings several chances of scattered
thunderstorms. The medium range models show surprising agreement in
the overall upper level pattern with minor differences showing up at
the surface. This allows for fairly high Pops during the holidays
although it won`t be a total washout. Too far out to determine the
daily severe threat although we`ll be within the warm sector and
likely seeing moderate amounts of instability.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR conditions during the period with little if any cloud cover.
Gusty northerly winds will subside by late afternoon with winds
veering slightly to the northeast by Tuesday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ





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