Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 152309
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2017

Developing mean upper level troughing across the western U.S. is
setting the stage for a more active weather pattern across our
part of the country, putting an end to a dry spell that has lasted
for almost 3 weeks now. The first in a series of disturbances in
this pattern will track across the Northern Plains on Saturday. A
nocturnal low-level jet ahead of this feature will likely
initiate another round of overnight convection tonight, similar to
what occurred last night but a bit further east. The most likely
area to see this activity will be across far northeast KS into
northwest MO and Iowa, but there`s a slight chance it could make
it as far south and east as the I-35 corridor before dissipating
later Saturday morning. More widespread thunderstorms are likely
to develop Saturday afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that
will be pushing into far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Moderate to strong instability could support a few strong storms
across far northwest MO, but weak shear will be unfavorable for
organized severe storms.

Storms will likely expand to the south and east across much of the
area Saturday night before the cold front eventually stalls
somewhere near or just south of I-70. Storms will quickly become
elevated after dark which will keep the severe threat low, but
precipitable water values near 1.75" could support some pockets of
locally heavy rain. The frontal boundary will gradually lift back
north into northern Missouri and southern Iowa Sunday and Sunday
night which will likely support additional rounds of showers and
storms across much of the area. Weaker upper level dynamics and
degraded instability from morning clouds and precipitation should
keep the threat for strong storms fairly low on Sunday.

Southwest flow aloft will continue into much of next week, with
several embedded disturbances maintaining a fairly active weather
pattern. Can`t rule out a round or two of strong storms during
this time especially if sufficient instability can be acquired,
but with weak/marginal shear there are no signals for a
particularly active severe weather day during this period. With
the aforementioned boundary remaining to the north there doesn`t
appear to be a focused heavy rain or flooding threat either, but
with the possibility for multiple rounds of rain through next week
it`s still worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Broken to
overcast high clouds streaming from diminishing showers over
eastern KS will continue over the next few hours, but even light
showers are not expected to impact any of the terminals. Winds
will remain out of the southeast at 8 to 12 kts overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Laflin


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