Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Quiet October weather will continue through most of the next seven
days with only a small potential for precipitation coming Sunday
night into Monday. For today, temperatures will be several degrees
warmer than Wednesday with the upper shortwave ridge axis nosing
right across the area. At the surface, a weak front will begin
moving into the area this afternoon. This will allow for warmer
temperatures aloft to spread into the region and mixing into those
temperatures gives highs in the middle 70s. Cooler, though still
close to normal, temperatures will spread across the region Friday
and high pressure building into the center of the country will
inhibit any precipitation through much of the weekend.

The only real shot of precipitation through the entire forecast
comes Sunday night. And confidence in that occurring is waning as
trends over the last few days show the likelihood of precipitation
developing into a building western ridge as declining. But for now,
models take a strong shortwave well north and east of the area with
its associated front tracking through the local area Sunday night.
In the upper levels, a deepening ridge over the Rockies, building
into the Plains, is expected and as a result the chances for
precipitation along the front look fairly low. Forecast soundings,
at this point, are starting to favor just some mid-level cloudiness
with the frontal passage.

For the rest of the extended, an expansive area of high pressure is
likely to build into Ontario and Quebec and spill into the Great
Lakes and region by the middle of next week. In the Plains, lee
troughing is expected. With this configuration of pressure systems,
we`ll see winds from the southeast with close to normal
temperatures. The upper ridge should expand over the center of the
country and keep conditions dry through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. A weak cold
front will drop southeast across the area tonight, switching winds
around to the northwest at speeds around 5 kts between 23z-03z. A
few upper-level clouds may follow behind the front, but bases will
be above 20 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin





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