Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 242312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

Very quiet weather pattern in place across the Nation`s midsection
this afternoon as upper-level ridging continues to build across the
Intermountain West and Northern Rockies. Downstream...broad
northwest flow prevails over our region with afternoon water vapor
imagery revealing a few inbound mid-level shortwaves seen off to our
northwest. Fortunately however...arriving mid-level disturbances have
virtually no moisture to work with...compliments of sfc high pressure
and a northerly pressure gradient which extends across much of the
Great Plains/Lwr Missouri Vly. All told...tonight is shaping up to be
unseasonably cool once again...with clear skies and calm winds
allowing for optimal radiational cooling conditions. As such...expect
lows early Tuesday morning to range in the lower to middle 50s across
much of the area...with a few low 40s possible up towards the Iowa
state line and interior river valley locations.

Dry and pleasant weather to continue through both Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure remains in firm control. Next weather
feature of interest set to arrive early Thursday morning as a weak
warm front approaches our region from the west. Quick look at several
theta surfaces reveals weak ascent along the 305-310 surfaces as a
weak low-level jet impinges along the boundary. Despite this...BUFKIT
soundings continue to reveal a very dry atmosphere in place across
our region which will require a fair amount of moistening before
measurable precip is able to make it to the surface.
In addition...mid-level height fields do reveal a weak shortwave
trough that should be accompanying the front as it approaches. In
response to both the front and the upper wave...cannot totally cannot
rule out some light shwrs/iso storms heading into Thursday
morning...but majority of the area will likely see little if any
precip. Similar message for Thursday as warm front continues to very
slowly lift northeast with time. As this occurs...high pressure in
place across the Great Lakes will continue to supply dry low-level
air over the Lwr Missouri Vly. As a result...have held precip
mention to slgt chc for now.

Scenario begins to change some by Friday as additional shortwave
energy rotating along the northern periphery of the upper ridge
centered across the Desert Southwest consolidates with the previously
mentioned wave off to our northwest. This will cause the wave to
deepen and close off...with modest southerly flow allowing for some
return flow to make its way this far north. As such...precip chances
look to become more widespread Thu night/Fri as main 850-hPa closed
low passes just off to our north. Considering fairly consistent model
agreement between the ECMWF/GFS/and Canadian...have increased pops
accordingly...with the highest values (likely mention) confined
across northwestern portions of the fcst area. From this vantage
point...overall severe threat looks marginal at best as increased
cloud cover leading up to the low passing to our north will likely
hinder destabilization processes.

Beyond this...extended range models continue to advertise moderate
height rises building into the area as upper-level ridging strengthens
to our west. This should allow for a modest increase in temperatures
heading into the weekend and early next week with dry conditions
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR conds with mainly clear skies is expected at the TAF sites thru
the pd with the exception STJ. Steam fog off the Missouri River is
expected to impact STJ btn 09Z-13Z as the air temp drops more than 20
degrees below the river water temp (which is the threshold for fog
development at STJ). Also, winds at all the TAF site will be lgt and
vrb thru tomorrow afternoon when they will increase out of the N
around 6kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...73



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