Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 141044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
544 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU SEP 14 2017

A weak mid-level wave overhead modest 850 hPa flow extending from
southwest Kansas to southwest Iowa has provided sufficient
forcing for scattered convection across northeast Kansas to
southwest Iowa. This activity will eventually cross into
northwest Missouri and continue off and on into the early
afternoon, though should remain generally limited to areas over
northwest Missouri, coincident with the placement of enhanced 850
hPa flow. This same low level southwest flow will also bring a
steady supply of warm advection across the area today,
particularly northwest Missouri, where afternoon temps will hover
at or near 90 degrees. Adequate mixing should also allow surface
winds to gust to 20 to 25 mph north of the KC metro today, with
more widespread gusty winds expected Friday. At that time, leeside
low pressure will have developed across western Kansas and
Nebraska, as a broad troughing pattern continues to develop to the
northwest, with an axis situated across the northern Rockies
extending to the southwestern CONUS. A tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the surface low will create gusty conditions for
much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri Friday afternoon as
gusts approach 25 mph. Afternoon high temps will edge closer to 90
degrees across the entire CWA, approximately 10 degrees above
normal.

With the rainfall deficit now around 2 inches, a highly
anticipated cold front will cross into the region Saturday and
provide a reasonable chance for scattered storms beginning
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The frontal bounday should
stall over the area Sunday afternoon as the upper pattern becomes
zonal to the north. This could trigger off and on storms
throughout Sunday afternoon near the stalled boundary, though the
greatest chance of precip remains during the overnight period
Saturday. The boundary will then lift back to the north as a warm
front Monday, as a subsequent troughing pattern develops upstream.
This will keep the local area within a warm and relatively moist
environment, which will help to maintain the active period with
additional storm chances throughout next week. During this time,
temps will remain just above normal considering persistent
southerly return flow and resulting warm advection.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT THU SEP 14 2017

Scattered storms will approach northwest Missouri through the
morning and perhaps early afternoon before weakening, though
should generally stay north of the terminals, with the exception
of KSTJ. Surface winds will gust to 20 to 25 kts this afternoon
out of the southeast, before quickly tapering off near sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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