Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 020544
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Tonight:

Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.

Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.

Thursday - Friday:

The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.

4th of July Weekend:

Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.

Monday - Wednesday:

The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Combination of VFR and MVFR conditions currently prevail across the
terminals along the Kansas-Missouri state line is expect to persist
through the next 24 hours with a steady east wind. Might have issues
around sunrise with surface fog thanks to the rain overnight.
Otherwise, there is still a small chance for storms at the terminals,
but the chance is sufficiently small to not warrant including in the
TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ030>033-
     038>040-044>046-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter






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