Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 270401
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1101 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
Primary wave rounding an upper trough to our north went through early
this morning, however a secondary lobe is swinging into the region
late this afternoon and this evening. This is leading to another wave
of scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern Missouri this
afternoon, where weak instability and weak shear should prevent any
storm from reaching severe limits although a few reports of pea size
hail wouldn`t be too surprising. This activity should slowly die down
with loss of heating later this evening. However, a second band of
showers and a few storms may pop up near or just south of the I-70
corridor later this evening where weak lift will be maximized near a
weak low-level boundary. Again, fairly weak shear should minimize any
threat for severe storms across this area, and any rainfall amounts
should generally be under a half inch.
Shortwave upper-level ridging on Wednesday will bring one of the
drier days we`ve seen in a while, although with an uncapped and
unstable atmosphere it won`t be difficult for any weak perturbation
to spark an isolated storm or two. Shear will be quite weak so
organized or long-lived storms are unlikely, but with low-level lapse
rates close to dry adiabatic and max theta-e differentials around
25K, an isolated gusty downburst can`t be ruled out should anything
develop during the afternoon. Most areas will be dry though.
Weak ridging will slide to the east on Thursday allowing for a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms with the return of southwesterly
upper flow overhead. This pattern will continue into Friday, and
there could be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this
time until a cold front clears things out early Saturday. Again,
shear looks to be pretty weak and instability may be hindered by the
presence of widespread clouds and convection upstream, so organized
severe storms don`t appear too much of a threat at this time.
However with the possibility for more than one round of
precipitation, will need to watch for some localized heavy
rain/flooding issues although this doesn`t appear to be as widespread
of a threat as some of the other recent systems.
A fairly large area of high pressure will build into the area over
the weekend with generally dry and cooler conditions.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
Mainly clear skies and light winds are expected through the forecast
period. Some scattered cumulus is possible Wednesday afternoon, but
bases should be at or above 5 kft.