Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 021046
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
446 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Issued at 445 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Winter storm has been ongoing since late Saturday night, and is
going through a bit of a lull phase before another round of light
snow will commence during the mid to late morning hours. The far
northern part of Missouri is largely cleared from the snow as drier
mid level air has moved in cutting off the snow. While large scale
snow production is not anticipated, there is enough very low level
moisture as well as extremely cold temperatures in place for far N.
MO to have a moisture/thermal profile conducive to some very light
snow production. Expect that area to remain in some very light
flurries to perhaps very minor accumulating snow through the mid
morning before completely being done with the snow. Areas a little
further south, toward the I-70 corridor will continue to see light
snow and sleet through the rest of the morning hours. Radar trends
suggest that a few pockets of sleet still exist over portions of WC
MO. and these will continue to bring some accumulating snow and
sleet through the rest of the morning. There will likely be a brief
lull in the wintry precipitation around sunrise as the drier air
continues to work its way into the area from the north.
Frontogenetical lift will reintensify later this morning into the
early afternoon hours, and be somewhat supplemented by some mid
level ascent associated with a shortwave trough, which is currently
just east of the 4-corner region. The result will be potentially
another round of light snow, mainly along the Interstate-70 corridor
and south. By the time this second round of precipitation commences
later this morning, the low/mid levels should be adequately cooled
off to get rid of the sleet, which should make for some rather high
snow ratios. Expect QPF amounts later today to be in the .10 to .25
inch range, and with SLRs around 15 to 20:1 can expect some decent
accumulation with this Sunday round of snow. After all is said and
done, we can probably expect to see another 2 to 4 inches of snow to
go with the 1 to 3 inches of snow/sleet that fell across most of the
area overnight. All snow should be out of the area by Sunday evening.
Temperatures across the area are as big of a story as the snow, as
single digit temperatures have already moved into the area. Brisk
northerly winds around 15 to 20 mph are causing wind chill values to
drop into the -10 to -20 degree range this morning. As a result of
the very cold temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills this
morning, have left the Winter Weather Advisory in place across
northern Missouri through noon, mainly to cover that threat.
Temperatures will do very little recovering through the day on
Sunday, as cold northerly winds continue to usher in the cold air.
Thick cloud cover through much of the day will also limit any real
insolation. The result will be high temperatures on Sunday limited
to the single digits, which would break not only the daily record
low high for Kansas City, but would also break the record for lowest
March high temperature ever recorded. With the cold air in place and
light northerly winds continuing overnight, expect overnight lows to
drop into the -5 to -10 degree range, with wind chill values
dropping to -15 to -25 degrees for Monday morning.
After Monday we still expect a general warming trend to commence
through the week. Both the west coast ridge and the Hudson Bay low,
both responsible for the terrible start to March will slide a little
east, which would put the area more under the influence of the mid
level ridge as opposed to the mid level Hudson Bay trough. The
result would be clear/fair skies - for at least the early to middle
part of the week - with southerly winds helping temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday to get back into the 30s. A very quick-hitting
mid level trough will glide through the area on Thursday, bringing a
chance for some rain/snow mix, but expect very little in the way of
impacts from that system. By Friday the warmup will reach it`s
climax as a shortwave ridge moves through the area, bringing a much
needed 50+ degree day to most of the forecast area. Another
transient shortwave trough will glide through the area on Saturday,
briefly interrupting the warm up, but expect temps next Sunday to
get back into the 50s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
A winter storm will persist tonight into Sunday across the region,
and will continue to spread moderate to heavy snow across all TAF
sites through Sunday morning. Visibilities may drop to 1/2 mile or
less at times, and ceilings should settle around or slightly above
1,000 ft. Snow intensity and associated visibilities should begin to
improve after 12z Sunday, but some light snow may linger into the mid
to late afternoon across the KC metro area and points southward.
North northeast winds will continue at around 15 kts through Sunday.
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ057-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ103>105.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR MOZ038>040-
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ028>033-
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>008-011.