000
FXUS63 KEAX 132340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

This Afternoon:

Dangerous fire conditions will persist through this evening. Area
88D radars and the terminal Doppler north of KCI have detected a
number of fires across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Humidity
values will remain in upper teens to lower 20 percent range with
winds gusting to around 25 mph through around sunset. Winds should
diminish around this time as the boundary layer inversion begins to
develop/increase.

Tonight through Saturday:

A weak cold front will begin to move through the area late tonight.
Winds may stay a bit mixed overnight which will keep temperatures
relatively mild ahead of the front with lows in the low to mid 40s.
The front should push through the forecast area by the noon hour
with temperatures tomorrow afternoon about 5 to as much as 10
degrees cooler than today. So highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s
will prevail, which is still above normal for this time of year.

The mild conditions will continue on Saturday. Weak high pressure
will traverse through the area during the overnight with winds
switching to the south by sunrise. The southerly surface flow will
continue, pushing temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s.
Precipitation chances will begin to increase during the afternoon on
Saturday. Another front will begin to work through the area, this
time with a greater amount of moisture to work with. This will allow
for showers and few thunderstorms to develop over mainly the
southern third of the forecast by the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Sunday...A shortwave trough is progged to develop alongside a
longwave trough over the central US, bringing a persistent chance of
precipitation over the CWA. Some locations over the northern third
of the CWA could see some snow, albeit very small amounts, between
06z and 12z. Vorticity maxima associated with the longwave
trough will translate slowly over the CWA throughout the day,
keeping Sunday cloudy and wet.

Monday through Wednesday...A relatively quiet and mild Monday will be
interrupted by a noisy Tuesday when a mid-latitude cyclone develops
out of the Canadian Rockies and translates to the east. An associated
cold front will drop our temperatures to near freezing in the
northern part of the CWA. However, the EC and GFS both are progging
the bulk of the precipitation to stay just to our north in Iowa and
Wisconsin.

Thursday...the EC and GFS models diverge at this point. The EC is
progging some precipitation forming due to residual vorticity
associated with a longwave trough. However, the GFS is progging for
quiet conditions due to the longwave trough translating further
east. Kept some light QPF amounts in the forecast due to the
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mainly clear
skies tonight and scattered cirrus tomorrow. The main concern for
aviators will be the winds. Winds will remain out of the south-
southwest tonight between 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts. Winds will
remain strong through the overnight period and this will preclude
LLWS despite winds being around 45kts out of the southwest at 2kft
above the surface. A cold front will move through the terminals
between 12Z-14Z tomorrow morning and winds will veer to the northwest
between 10-15kts with gusts around 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001-002-004-
     011>013-020>022-028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...CDB/Schultz
AVIATION...73