000
FXUS63 KEAX 181116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2017

Very little change to the forecast this morning issuance as the
pattern continues to remain consistent. The warm fall weather
looks to remain in place through the remainder of the week. One
more day of northwest flow aloft before the upper pattern evolves
to southwesterly as ridging takes shape over the Plains in advance
of highly amplified trough moving across the Western CONUS. With
the northwest flow and upper ridging, expect dry weather to
persist through the end of the work week. H85 thermal axis slides
across the forecast area today in advance of a weak upper wave,
and helping yield afternoon temperatures a few degrees warmer than
yesterday. The warming trend should continue into Thursday as the
upper ridge axis moves overhead, with some locations flirting
near 80 degrees. For comparison, our average high today is 66
degrees, so readings will be a solid 10-15 degrees above normal
during the remainder of the work week.

A strong pressure gradient will develop across the Plains states on
Friday with surface high pressure anchored over the Appalachians and
a lee trough forming over the High Plains. This will bring some
breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday, along with an increase in
moisture with dewpoints returning to the 60s by Saturday. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible by Friday night
into Saturday morning as a 50 kt, H85 low-level jet and insentropic
ascent materialize over the forecast area. A cold front will sweep
through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, and with continued
moistening and increasing large scale ascent with the approach of
the upper trough, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely.
While overall instability is projected to be relatively modest,
the strong wind fields would support organized convection, so will
need to closely monitor stability of the warm sector as event
nears.

The cold front will push through the CWA Saturday night, with
lingering post-frontal precipitation during the overnight hours.
Still, the progressive nature of the system should clear rain out
of the area before or shortly after sunrise Sunday, with clouds
clearing and a return of the sun by midday Sunday. Cooler and
drier air will advect into the region, bringing back high
temperatures to seasonal averages in the 60s and dry weather for
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered cirrus
will overspread the area during the late morning and afternoon
hours, along with gusty southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair