Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230831
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Over the next few hours, will be watching areas of showers and
storms currently moving east-northeastward across portions of north
central KS and south central NE along the nose of the low-level jet.
While the LLJ itself is expected to translate northward with time
and keep forcing for additional precipitation west of the forecast
area, have seen accas filling in all the way to the I-35 corridor in
east central KS, and weak upper-level steering could allow cold pool
propagation to dominate storm motion and bring at least a few
isolated showers and storms into northwestern portions of the CWA by
mid-morning. Precipitation and any associated cloud cover or outflow
could again impact temperatures today especially across our NW, so
have lowered highs a notch across far western and northwestern parts
of the forecast area, with the most significant changes in the far
northwest corner. Moisture will continue to pool and afternoon sun
is still expected to help temperatures climb rapidly during the late
afternoon and early evening hours, so will continue the heat warning
and expect that heat indices will still climb above the century mark
nearly CWA-wide.

The forecast remains broadly unchanged as our very persistent upper
ridge retrogrades westward and weakens, and a shortwave trough dives
east southeast from the Canada/ND border into the Great Lakes Sunday
night, further encouraging the pattern breakdown. The "cold" front
that will sag southward across the region Sunday night and Monday is
still expected to bring relief from the excessive heat in the form
of slightly lower dewpoints and cloud cover to help dampen daytime
temperature rises, and even as the front washes out later in the
week, more northerly flow aloft and the confinement of the thermal
ridge back to the High Plains will keep temperatures closer to their
seasonal normals for the remainder of the forecast period.

Precipitation chances have artificially decreased a shade on Sunday
night and Monday due to a bit of disagreement in timing, placement,
and coverage of convection along the boundary; while almost all
models produce precipitation across the majority of the forecast
area at some point during that period, refinement of PoPs into more
precise time periods has resulted in lower chances. The probability
of storms within the 24 hour period spanning Sunday evening through
Monday evening is still about 50 percent, and while upper-level
forcing does remain well north of the forecast area, instability
will be more than ample, and convergence -- albeit weak -- along the
front plus the tail end of the upper wave should support scattered
convective initiation.

On-and-off precipitation chances return Tuesday night and continue
through the rest of the week as a series of waves ride down the
western ridge and into the forecast area. None of these setups look
particularly good for strong/severe convection or heavy rain without
good flow aloft or a low-level boundary on which to focus, but will
continue to iron out these details in the coming days.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Line of showers and storms over northeast KS and far northwest MO
will be slow to move eastward, and at this time is not expected to
get far enough east to impact the KC terminals before storms
dissipate early Saturday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions expected
next 24 hours.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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