Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291745
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 407 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

An active pattern will continue to affect the region today and
persist through the late week with a few possible hazards in play
beginning this afternoon and evening. A strong upper level low
will continue to become cutoff from the main upper flow this
afternoon. Energy ejecting out of this system in the mid-levels
atop a modest nocturnal jet and ample moisture has formed a large
swath of precipitation beginning to encroach the local area as of
early Wednesday morning. Persistent elevated instability has
maintained the convective nature of storms through the overnight,
though latest satellite imagery does depict gradually warming
cloud tops and decreasing lightning activity overall. Thunderstorm
development will continue to weaken through the early morning,
though steady rain showers will persist through the better part of
the morning. Highest rain totals will approach three quarters of
an inch for the western counties during this initial round of
activity. Round two of this event will arrive this evening as a
strengthening surface low treks across southwestern Missouri.
Latest model runs have this feature progged to lift further north
than previous runs. As a result convection ahead of the warm front
may pose a greater risk for severe weather within areas mostly
south of I-70 this evening. This will occur in a highly sheared
environment ahead of the cutoff low and easterly surface flow
along the warm front will result in 0 to 1 km shear values of 30
plus knots. A few tornadoes are possible as result south of I-70.
In addition, LCL heights will remain low given the persistent
ample moisture values in the lower levels. Large hail is also
possible near the warm front in addition to strong to damaging
winds. The main uncertainty with this potential setup is the
amount of destabilization that can be realized. Nonetheless,
severe weather is possible this evening, mostly for areas south of
I-70, though isolated large hail is possible as far north as
Highway 36.

The other hazard for day 1 is the potential for localized flash
flooding. With the latest dry trend, most areas should be able to
handle forecast rain totals, especially in light of the expanse of
time over which multi-day precipitation will occur. With that said,
precipitable water values between 1 to 1.25 inches remain
unusually high for this time of year, and heavy rainfall may
result in localized flash flooding. Of perhaps greater concern is
with the potential for rising river levels over the three day
event.

By Thursday, rain showers and thunderstorms will continue across
the area as the surface low slowly progresses to the northeast.
While the severe threat for day 2 will be favored mostly east of
the CWA, hydrologic concerns will remain at play with regard to
river levels. The overall efficiency of precipitation will
decrease, but ample moisture and persistent forcing will maintain
rain chances through much of Thursday. This activity will finally
taper off by early Friday. By the end of the event, expecting to
see rain totals approach the 2 inch mark for areas near the
Missouri River and slightly lesser values north. Could see values
up to 2.25 inches for the southern KC metro along with points
south.

By Friday, mid-level ridging will return to the area with resulting
dry conditions and slightly rebounding temperatures beginning
Saturday. A similar upper level system will then approach the area
by the late weekend. This system appears to be less organized,
though much of the area will see beneficial rains once again. By the
mid-week, a stronger storm system will approach the Central Plains,
this one being centered closer to the local area. Thus, the
unsettled pattern will persist throughout the next seven days with
temperatures not veering too far from seasonal values.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

IFR conditions ongoing across the area as a large area of low
pressure continues to impact the region. Fcst soundings show
little potential for improvement later this afternoon/overnight,
hence long duration IFR conditions are expected. As a cold front
slides east, expect developing convection after the 21z time
frame, with potential impacts expected at all three KC area
terminals. A bit more uncertainty exists up at STJ, however will
update as trends become better established. In any event, look for
a three, maybe four hour window later this afternoon and evening
for storms across the area. Storms should quickly move east after
02z, with widespread shwrs expected in its wake and the
continuation of IFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...32



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