Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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369
FXUS63 KEAX 201117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

A complex of thunderstorms which developed across central NE last
evening has developed stout outflow and driven southeastward
throughout the night, reaching far northwest MO early this AM.
Significant dry air between 850-700 hPa and 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE
above the dry layer has helped support the cold-pool propagation
especially across southeast NE and into northeast KS where the
CAPE is highest. Wind gusts between 50-55 mph are not out of the
question where the reflectivity gradient and outflow boundary
remain coincident, but expect the most robust portion of the
complex to dive mainly southward where low-level shear and
instability are locally highest. The northern half of the complex
may continue to feed southeastward along the CAPE gradient, but
should eventually begin to run out of steam as it travels away
from the more supportive environment, leaving an outflow boundary
draped somewhere across the CWA.

Instability will mount this afternoon as diurnal heating sharpens
low-level lapse rates, and minimal capping will make isolated
storm development possible throughout the afternoon, especially
along any remnant boundaries. Shear will be minimal and dry air
will continue to plague the majority of the profile, leaving
isolated strong wind gusts as the primary concern in any robust
storms that develop.

Additional storms are expected to develop across NE/IA tonight,
which could again push southeastward across portions of the CWA
early tomorrow morning in a similar manner to this morning`s
storms, possibly leaving cloud cover and outflow lingering into
the morning. In addition, cirrus is still expected to stream
northeastward into the forecast area from the southwest, resulting
in multiple possible layers of broken to overcast cloud cover
through the afternoon. Anywhere that enough heating does occur to
steepen lapse rates, isolated convection is again possible in the
afternoon.

A cold front will sweep through the region on Monday night and
Tuesday morning, bringing widespread showers and storms to the
CWA. Heavy rain and a few strong storms are possible, which could
be a concern for those with outdoor lodging or travel plans on
Monday night. These storms will exit the region Tuesday, leaving
quieter conditions and cooler temperatures for the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.Specifics for the Total Solar Eclipse on August 21st...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

Broken to overcast cirrus is still expected to stream into the
region on Monday, at least partially hampering the view of the
solar eclipse across the majority of the forecast area. Cirrus
may be thin enough to still view the outline of the sun, but there
remains some question to whether a thicker midlevel deck will
also be present as a result of lingering morning convection.
Further updates will follow today and tonight.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to dissipate over
the next 1-2 hours at the KC area terminals, and while the next
round of thunderstorms currently pushing into far northwest MO
could impact the TAF sites and particularly KSTJ through mid-
morning, coverage and certainty is low enough to warrant only a
VCTS for this potential second round. Otherwise, winds will be out
of the south to southwest today at around 10 kts, and skies should
become mainly clear by mid- to late-morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Eclipse...Laflin



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