Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 010855
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Short Term (Today through Tomorrow Night):

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will be the
potential for a couple rounds of severe storms. The first of these
potential rounds of severe storms is expected to affect the western
CWA this evening/tonight. A second round of severe weather will
again be possible for most of the CWA on Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri this morning with a few showers further east.
Showers have been training over those areas for several hours and
radar estimates about 1.00"-1.50" of precip has already fallen across
these areas. Luckily, flash flood guidance for these areas is high,
around 3.5"-4.0" for 6 hours. Nonetheless this will be an area that
will have to be monitored with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms likely over the next 48 hours. These storms will
continue to move slowly eastward over the CWA through the morning
hours. Cloud cover and showers through the morning hours will cause
instability to be slow to recover across the area this afternoon
however, thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across eastern
Kansas where skies may clear out earlier. This evening looks to be
the best chance for severe thunderstorms to develop as a lead
shortwave ejects out from an upper level trough across the eastern
Rockies. This will occur as a 40-50kt 850mb southwesterly LLJ get
ramped up across eastern Kansas. Models are depicting a weak surface
boundary bisecting the CWA. Good instability and lift will make large
hail and damaging winds the main threats this evening/tonight across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. However with the weak surface
boundary in the area there is some potential for tornadic
development. 0-6km shear will be good with the swly LLJ at 850mb and
a 80-90kt mid level jet impinging on the area. However, 0-1km shear
is not as strong as winds near the surface will be light...what is of
more concern is that they are backed to the SSE. So, the most likely
scenario is that initial convection develops as supercells across
eastern Kansas with the initial threats being large hail/damaging
winds with a possible tornado or two. Supercells should eventually
merge into a more linear structure with damaging winds and perhaps an
isolated tornado being the main threat as storms move into western
Missouri.

Storms will continue through the early morning hours Thursday across
the CWA weakening toward daybreak as the LLJ weakens. We will then
again turn our attention to the west as the aforementioned upper
level trough digs as it moves out into Plains and forces a strong
cold front into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west
of the area early Thursday along the front forming a line of storms.
These storms will push into the area on Thursday with the main
threat being damaging winds. The front should finally push east of
the area by Thursday evening. The upper level trough will move
through Thursday night. Some models try to develop instability
showers as the upper trough rotates through but dry air and
subsidence behind the front should undercut any chance for showers.
Two day rain totals could be on the order of 2.5"-3.5" however as
mentioned previously, flash flood guidance is not expected to be
exceeded over any locale.

Long Term (Friday - Tuesday):

The extended period looks much more benign then the short term
providing cold and dry conditions with a gradual warm up through the
period. On Friday, a reinforcing upper level trough will move
through the upper Midwest putting the local area under cool NW flow
aloft. Highs Friday and Saturday will only be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s with frost being a concern for Saturday morning as lows
drop into the mid to upper 30s. Northwest flow begins to relax
across the area by the second half of the weekend in to beginning of
next week. By Tuesday, highs will return to near normal with highs
in the low to mid 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Convection continues to increase in coverage west of the terminals
with showers approaching their vicinity. Models have trended toward
moving convection east of the terminals late in the morning or early
in the afternoon. So there may be a period of relative dryness before
the next round of storms develops late in the afternoon or early
evening. As with the previous forecast, there is enough uncertainty
regarding with timing and coverage to keep from adding a TSRA group.
So for now have kept conditions VFR. Though if a stronger shower or
storm moves over a terminal a reduction to IFR is likely.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB






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