Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 222104
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
404 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.Short Term...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Enjoy what`s left of today because an unsettled period is coming.
Surface high pressure currently centered over IL will continue to
trek off toward the east, closing the benign weather door. Shortwave
trough plus moisture advection plus upper- and lower-level jets (i.e.
increasing shear) plus decent instability equals the chance for
strong to severe storms to develop tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours. The better chance for severe weather currently looks
to be concentrated across the NW portions of MO but certainly can`t
rule out some feisty activity across much of northern MO into west-
central MO and eastern KS. Primary hazards will be gusty to perhaps
damaging winds along with moderate to locally heavy rainfall; hail
will be possible as well. Despite the loss of diurnal heating
overnight tomorrow, nocturnal LLJ cranking up could continue to fuel
any lingering storms even with marginal instability.

Late Wednesday into the overnight hours could also be rather active
with the added assistance from a cold front dropping through the
forecast area. Shear parameters look even more impressive and could
again pose a gusty to perhaps damaging wind threat in addition to a
hail threat. Limiting severe factor could be the timing of the fropa
and associated storms but will certainly need to keep an eye on how
the event evolves Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Temperatures for tomorrow and Wednesday will continue to be near or
slightly below normal for mid-August with high temps topping out in
the mid to upper 80s both days. Lows will be in the 60s tonight and
Wednesday night with temps struggling to drop below the 70 degree
mark tomorrow night, thanks to the aforementioned
convection/associated cloud cover and warm, moist southerly air
advecting in ahead of the frontal boundary.

.Long Term...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

The active pattern will continue well into the latter half of the
work week as the parent upper level trough slides into the Northern
Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. A surface cold front will
finally push through northwest Missouri by Thursday morning and into
the afternoon hours. Low level moisture availability will begin to
subside as southerly surface flow becomes more southwesterly by the
late week. Will still see chances of precipitation along the front,
and will need to monitor the potential for severe, though the lack
of deep layer moisture compared with activity on Tuesday and
Wednesday will limit widespread showers and storms as the frontal
boundary pushes through the area Thursday.

The upper level pattern overhead will weaken as the main system
lifts into the northeastern CONUS by Friday. This will stall the
frontal boundary across the I-70 corridor, and with persistent
southerly surface flow, will see chances of showers and
thunderstorms resume Friday and Saturday. The boundary will finally
lift to the east by the late weekend, though warm advection ahead of
another deepening upper trough over the Central Rockies will
maintain PoPs in the forecast through the end of the period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for the afternoon and into the evening
hours at all four TAF sites. As surface high pressure moseys on off
toward the east and southerly flow advects in lower-level moisture
again, could see some lower-level clouds attempting to build in
during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. Should be able to hone in on
the details for the next issuance. As for storm chances, current
indications point toward holding off at the TAF sites until right
toward the very end of this TAF period so have negated inclusion at
this time. As already alluded to, southerly winds will prevail.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...lg
Long Term...Welsh
Aviation...lg



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