Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 210829
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY, BUT IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S,
WHEREAS YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH THE 50S. THE
WARMING WILL COME COURTESY OF SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN A SOUTHWARD SINKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. THE WARM-UP WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING SUNSHINE, THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES, AND
THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL IL LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND PASS THROUGH DRY WITH LITTLE LIFT AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S WITH ANY PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN IL SOUTH OF I-64 AND INTO KY OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MILDEST READINGS SW AREAS. 1026
MB HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO MI/OH BY
DAWN SATURDAY KEEPING IL DRY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
SW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT 50-55F AND HIGHS SAT
IN THE MID 70S OVER CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S SE OF I-70.

00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER AND KEEPING IL DRY ON
SATURDAY AND ARE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EASTERN IL NOW APPEARS TO STAY DRY MOST OF THE
NIGHT SAT NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WARM...MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER IL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AND KEEP A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NW OF IL AND THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IL STAYS IN AN
UNSETTLED SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (LIKELY CHANCES) APPEARS TO BE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF PEORIA TO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. GETTING MORE HUMID SUNDAY AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S MONDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL IN WARM SECTOR AND MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL IL TAF SITES THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS
AROUND THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS HELPING TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY...ANY LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY
17Z...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW CUMULUS LAYER
AROUND 4 KFT AGL LIKELY. SKIES CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO WNW 10-12 KTS THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW 3-7 KTS IN THE EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON



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