Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 271736
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE
LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ITS DIURNAL
WEAKENING CYCLE. DESPITE DISSIPATING TREND...IT APPEARS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KILX CWA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS PER THE LATEST HRRR. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDDAY
ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING COMPLEX TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/AREA OBS SUGGEST
THE MCV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. GIVEN THIS
POSITION AND AN EXPECTED E/NE TRAJECTORY...THINK BEST CHANCE AT
RENEWED CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LOW. FURTHER WEST...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY AND
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT SOME HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. OVER MOST OF THE AREA THEY WILL BE SCATTERED...BUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE THEY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN OUT SOUTHEAST WITH POPS LOWERING AS YOU GO
NORTHWEST. BELIEVE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH TO BETWEEN 80 AND 85.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AT LEAST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.  SOME LOW POPS STILL IN
THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION, OTHERWISE
SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE.
HOWEVER, JUST AS QUICKLY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE COUNTRY.  THE LOW DIGGING IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS HOWEVER IS A BIT WEAKER IN THE LAST FEW RUNS AND THE HEIGHTS
NOT QUITE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY IN THE MODELS.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
PATTERN MAY NOT PAN OUT TO BE EXACTLY AS DEPICTED, MIDWEST STILL IN
LINE FOR ANOTHER UNSETTLED END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER CHANCES
COMING BACK IN TOMORROW NIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES... WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
BRIEFLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 17Z/12PM OBS SHOWING IT APPROACHING THE I-55
CORRIDOR. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS HAD PREVIOUSLY SPREAD PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE RAPIDLY DEPARTED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CU-FIELD HAS SINCE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE
ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 3500FT.
HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES...SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS...HAVE INCLUDED LOW VFR CEILINGS AND VCSH
AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME WHEN DIURNAL
CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE/PUSH FURTHER EAST. WINDS ARE INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL VEER TO THE W/NW
AS THE FRONT PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. ONCE THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES



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