Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 020831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND ARRIVE AT KPIA-KBMI AROUND
17-18Z...CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI FOR THIS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BRING MORE PRECISE TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS LATER ON.
WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON



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