Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 271545
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD TODAY AND JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER WEST...WEST OF PEORIA AND
SPRINGFIELD. RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS SHOWING SOME QPF THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18Z-23Z FROM GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE WEST AND ALSO EAST
OF IL OVER INDIANA. A FEW BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN
2-5K FT SE OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO TO APPEAR IN WESTERN IL BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVERALL AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F WITH NORTH BREEZES 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-25 MPH ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES A COUPLE OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IA AND EASTERN MO.
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL INCLUDE WESTERN ILLINOIS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WARMING BACK UP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS OVERALL AS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT COMES BACK TO THE SFC
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN.  ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS
TEMPERED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW MOVING
THROUGH AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.  SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON DRY FOR THE ECMWF, AND
THE GFS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUN EVENING/NIGHT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM WITH MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  DETAILS STILL NOT IN FOCUS
AND SPC HAS OPTED TO LEAVE A SMALL CHUNK OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS JUST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW.

BEYOND SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORKWEEK...MON NIGHT/TUES HAS SEVERAL
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE SLOW EXIT OF THE WAVE OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NWRLY FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MIDWEEK AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AND A MESSY SUMMER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
AND PLENTY OF RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MOSTLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVER THE SITES THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
AT BMI WHICH HAS BROKEN MVFR CIGS AT 2.5KFT. THIS WILL NOT LAST
LONG AND EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS HERE TOO. SOME LIGHT FOG
IS ALSO PRESENT ALL PIA/SPI AND BMI. DEC AND CMI DO NOT HAVE FOG
AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD THIS COMING HOUR...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER...AND HAVE IT AT ALL SITES. EXPECTING
SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO
WESTERN IL FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT I DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS. DIURNALLY
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AROUND 10-15KTS BUT THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


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