Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 051827
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1227 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1225 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

Going forecast by and large still looks on track for the rest of
the afternoon. Only change of note was to increase temperatures a
couple of degrees, particularly for areas with little to no snow
cover...i.e., for portions of central and east-central Missouri
including the Columbia and St. Louis metro areas.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

An upper level TROF axis extends from MN to central KS early this
morning with a W-SW flow resulting over our region.  Canadian high
pressure was centered over the Mid-MO river valley.  The primary
cold front is well to our south, near the Gulf of Mexico coastline,
and there appears to be a weak secondary cold front pushing thru
northern MO and central IL now as evidenced by some pressure rises,
a lull in the winds, and a reinforcing shot of CAA.  Some weak lift,
either from this or from something immediately following the front,
also seems responsible for additional clouds and patchy light snow
in IA.  Temps were in the teens and lower 20s across our region with
no precipitation (for the moment).

The upper level TROF axis is expected to swing thru by early this
afternoon leaving behind NW flow aloft in its wake.  The weak lift,
which seems to be shown best on the GFS model, tracks southeastward
towards the Quincy area this morning before its various component
parts split apart by midday off to our east and southeast.  The
atmospheric column is very dry already and so we do not expect much
more than scattered flurries for some areas in northeast MO and into
west-central IL, with an isolated heavier snow shower possible but
the coverage of which is not significant enough to account for in
the forecast at this time as there are some doubts as to how well
even the scattered flurries will hold up as they try to move
southeast.  Either way, it looks to all be gone by early afternoon.
This area of lift will also bring some extra clouds into the area as
well and delay our full clearing until later in the day.

Otherwise, it will be a very cold day today, with max temps not
expected to exceed the mid 20s, with readings remaining in the teens
for many areas north and northeast of STL metro.  A MOS blend was
used for most sites.  This will result in temps being about 30
degrees below the norm for this time of year.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

Tonight will be unseasonably cold again, particularly across
southeast MO and southwest IL near the surface ridge axis with good
radiational cooling expected.  Will go below MOS temperature
guidance, especially in areas with snow cover.  Temperatures across
northeast and central MO will fall this evening, but should become
nearly steady or rise slightly late tonight as surface winds become
southerly on the west or northwest side of the surface ridge, and as
low level warm air advection increases over this area.  A northwest
flow shortwave will move southeastward through northeast MO and west
central IL late tonight.  There may be a little cloud cover ahead of
this feature, but it will be too dry for any precipitation.  Friday
will be the start of a warming trend as surface south-southwesterly
flow becomes established across the area.  The models shift the zero
degree C 850 mb isotherm eastward to the Mississippi River by 00Z
Saturday.  Temperatures by Friday night should be near normal for
early March, and eventually above normal by Saturday.  The NAM model
generates some very light qpf Saturday night across IL ahead of a
northwest flow shortwave, but this is likely more of a reflection of
boundary layer moisture and possible low level cloudiness and not
likely any light precipitation.  A weak and dissipating cold front
will drop southeastward into our area Saturday night.  Little if
any cooling is expected behind the front, maybe a few degrees cooler
across northeast MO and west central IL, but most areas will
continue to have above normal temperatures for the remainder of the
weekend.  The dry and tranquil weather pattern will continue for the
next work week with surface ridging across our area on Monday.  Even
warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with any
precipitation remaining south and southeast of our forecast area
ahead of a southern stream upper level trough and assoociated
surface low.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

Some diurnal cu to affect the metro terminals through early this
afternoon. Otherwise...mostly clear skies through tonight with
winds becoming light/variable this evening. Winds will turn to the
southeast by Friday morning and pick up to between 10 and 15
knots.


Specifics for KSTL:

Some diurnal cu to affect terminal through early this
afternoon...but stay within VFR. A mostly clear sky will develop
by early this evening along with winds becoming light/variable.
Winds will turn to the southeast by Friday morning and pick up to
between 10 and 15 knots fore becoming southerly by around noon on Friday.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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