000
FXUS63 KLSX 291121
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Instability sprinkles are possible this afternoon, but the
steepest lapse rates remain well to the north and east of the CWA.
High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday
for most areas, but still 8-10 degrees below average for this time
of year.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Previous forecast trends look reasonable and no major changes were
required with this forecast package. Ongoing northwest flow
pattern aloft will persist through the end of the week and into
the weekend. There are no strong signals for either widespread
precipitation or hot/humid weather during this time. Light
precip is possible each afternoon this week due to instability-
driven showers (possibly aided by transient vorticity maxima) and
perhaps a few thunderstorms, but most locations are expected to
remain dry. Moisture/instability parameters look a bit better on
Thu aftn compared to the rest of the week. The upper air pattern
begins to change over the weekend after a complex closed upper low
near Hudson Bay lifts northeastward and a ridge over the western
CONUS begins to shift into the plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal cu
should develop by 15z or so across the area with scattered-broken
coverage, and dissipation near sunset. I wouldn`t be suprised if a few
spotty very light showers pop up this afternoon but the coverage
will be quite sparse and longevity quite short.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal cu
should develop by 15z or so across the area with scattered-broken
coverage, and dissipation near sunset. I wouldn`t be suprised if a few
spotty very light showers pop up this afternoon but the coverage
will be quite sparse and longevity quite short.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX