Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 062102
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
302 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Colf front moving across the area will push the low cloudiness out
of the area. Models pretty consistent as then continue to push the
measurable precipitaiton for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
to the south with even lighter amounts. Have put
sprinkles/flurries in for STL area as it is certainly possible.
Colder temps prevail with model temps looking good.

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

(Wednesday night)
 Primary concern Wednesday and Wednesday evening will be chance of
snowfall in southwest and central Missouri. Models are consistent in
bringing shortwave through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
This will bring a chance of scattered snow showers to parts of south
central and central Missouri. There is a question how much if any
will reach the ground due to sublimation per cross sectional
analysis. A dusting of snowfall can not be ruled out during the late
afternoon or early evening hours especially in central and south
central Missouri.


(Thursday through Monday)

 High pressure will build into the area late Wednesday night through
Saturday afternoon. This will be the coldest air of the season so
far to impact the area. This will bring temperature some ten to
fifteen degrees below climatological normals for daily highs and
morning lows. The weather will be quiet during this time. High
pressure will slide into the Ohio Valley, which will bring warmer
air into the area from the southeast this weekend. There is yet
another system set to impact the region late this weekend into early
next week. The model ensembles though show a large spread in timing,
precipitation type and temperatures during this time frame. Thus
chosen to stay with ensemble guidance.


JPK

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Low pressure over central KY will continiue to move northeast.
Strong cold front will make its way across the region today
ushering in colder air. Mix if IFR/MVFR will be swept away by the
front. Gradual clearing from NW to SE this afternoon, then VFR,
with some gusty northwest wind.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Have pretty much followed CONSHORT model with
VFR at 21z, which seems reasonable bases on satellite trends.
Northwest wind looks to be a little more gusty than previous
forecast. VFR or the latter part of the forecast.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     29  39  21  27 /   5  10  10   0
Quincy          25  34  16  24 /  10  10  10   0
Columbia        26  35  16  25 /   5  30  20   0
Jefferson City  27  37  18  27 /   5  30  20   0
Salem           28  39  21  28 /   0  10  10   0
Farmington      26  40  20  30 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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