Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 270748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
248 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

The cold front has been rather slow moving thus far and stretched
across eastern IA through northwest MO into central KS at 07z.
Areas of fog have developed across portions of northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois where there was a bit more precipitation
yesterday and and the winds were light. The CWA was also void of
any precipitation. The closest showers and thunderstorms were
occurring in an east-west band from just northeast of KUIN to
east of KCMI and were associated with a region of moisture
convergence associated with the westerly low level wind max. The
shoft range guidance suggests that there could be some westward
development into the CWA over the next few hours, but the general
trend should be for this to push east through the early morning
hours as the cold front moves southeast. The cold front motion
will accelerate as the morning progresses in response to the upper
low/trof over the upper MS Valley digging southeastward toward the
Great Lakes. The northwest wind shift with the cold front should
also keep the fog as a short-lived phenomena. The air mass ahead
of the front will remain sufficiently moist and unstable to merit
low chance pops until fropa through the CWA around midday. Increasing
northwest winds in the wake of the front will usher drier and
cooler air into the region, predominately this afternoon.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Surface high pressure will slowly build into the area tonight and
in ernest on Monday as the high center settles southward into the
northern Plains. The high will dominate the region through the
first part of the week with a deep longwave trof anchored across
eastern NOAM, bringing more below average temperatures. During the
later part of the week, there will be a few disturbances aloft
dropping southeastward across the region and into the base of the
upper trof. These features will have a weak surface reflection but
could generate a few showers and/or thunderstorms while also
helping maintain the below average temps.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Latest surface analysis continues to show slow progress with the
frontal boundaries to our north and west. Latest surface analysis
shows stationary front extending from central Wisconsin to an area
of weak low pressure west of Kansas City then southwest into
southwest Kansas. This front has moved little within the past 3
hours. Secondary frontal boundary extends from southern Minnesota
through northwest Kansas. This front has also made little progress
to the southeast. Upstairs 500 mb shortwave from over the High
Plains will slide southeast across the upper and parts of Mid-
Mississippi Valley region by 1200 - 1800 UTC time frame. Cold
front forecast east-central Missouri between 1200-1400 UTC.

Specifics for KSTL::Light and variable winds will become west-
southwesterly 5 to 8 kts after 0900 UTC. isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible after 1000 UTC but should be ending by
1200 UTC. Expect cold front to move across STL between 1200 and
1400 UTC. Expected scattered showers to end after 1200 UTC.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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