Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 250837
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

No changes to heat headlines this morning as conditions to
persist across the region through Tuesday. For today, highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values between 100 and
110. Will see some isolated storms possible this afternoon over
the eastern Ozarks, so kept mention there.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

Very warm and muggy conditions once again tonight with lows only
dipping down into the low to mid 70s. By Tuesday pattern begins to
weaken as next frontal boundary approaches region. Tuesday will
still be hot and humid with highs 90s and heat index values
between 100 and 110. The threat of isolated activity to persist on
Tuesday but expand across entire forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon.

The extended models continue to show upper level ridge flattening
out over area with frontal boundary trying to push through region.
Front never fully moves through til towards end of the week. In the
meantime, will see chances of showers and thunderstorms through the
period with temperatures slowly cooling down. By Friday, highs will
be in the 80s everywhere and remain in the 80s through the weekend.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions and light southeast flow to prevail
across most of the area tonight. Some observations are coming in
with higher humidity than last night, but are also a bit warmer.
Think there will be some MVFR fog developing due to the relative
balance of heat and humidity. Not confident enough to go lower
than MVFR in the TAFs, but it is a possibility. Any fog that does
develop should dissipate quickly after sunrise.

VFR flight conditions and southwest flow will persist through Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail at Lambert for most of the
night, with the potential to drop down into MVFR briefly before
sunrise. This seems a bit more likely to occur than last night due
to higher humidity in the area than at this time last night. Any
fog that does form should dissipate quickly after sunrise. VFR
flight conditions and light southwest flow will prevail on Monday.
Wind should turn back to the southeast before sunset.

Carney
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-
     Shelby MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
     Washington MO.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT Tuesday FOR Jefferson MO-
     Lincoln MO-Pike MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT Tuesday FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX





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