Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 170259

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
959 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Issued at 946 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Forecast is still on track with only scattered-broken mid-high
clouds moving across the area. With southerly winds staying in
the 10-20 mph range with higher gusts tonight, lows tonight
should be another 5-8 degrees lower from current temperatures.



.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Mild and breezy conditions are expected tonight due to persistent
S/SW flow, a tightening pressure gradient, and strengthening winds
aloft. The stronger winds aloft may occasionally mix down to the
surface overnight via mechanical mixing, but the strongest gusts are
not expected until after daybreak on Monday. Overnight lows in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees will be 20-25 degrees above average for
this time of year.


.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Not much has changed thru the first few days of the work week and
therefore, did not make many changes. Upper ridge builds into the
region bringing record temps to the region. Temps on Tues will be
close to record for the sern half to third of the CWA. Mdls are in
fairly good agreement with fnt position along KPPQ to KJEF line at
18z Tues.

Mdls are in fairly good agreement now. However, the ECMWF places the
850mb fnt, and therefore the focus of the precip, further north
compared to the other guidance. Have kept low chance PoPs to account
for this, but also raised PoPs a bit where and when mdls are in
better agreement.

Cooler for the remainder of the week behind the system. However,
850mb temps are much warmer in latest guidance compared to
yesterday. Still, with continued CAA on Thurs, perhaps into Fri,
temps will be more seasonable. Temps shud rebound to some degree by
the weekend, although, another cdfnt on Sun may keep temps cooler.



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty
southerly winds are expected to continue...especially on Monday

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the period.



Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

Unseasonably warm conditions are expected to persist through
the weekend and into early next week and may approach record
territory. The following lists record high temperatures and
record high minimum temperatures for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy from Sunday to Tuesday.

St. LouisColumbiaQuincy

10/16   High Low:65/196566/196867/1968

10/17High Low:66/199864/196566/1935

Tuesday High:87/195386/195387/1924
10/18High Low:68/198564/197166/1938




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