Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 282359

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
559 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Rainfall over the eastern 1/3 of the CWFA will be ending from west to
east this evening as the "cold" front passes and drier air filters
into the area.  Clouds are likewise clearing from west to east, but
are not moving out quite as fast as expected.  Latest satellite pics
show the clearing line probably getting from central Missouri to the
St. Louis Metro area by 03-04Z...and then east to our CWFA border by
07-08Z.  The RAP seems to have a decent handle on the
have used it as the basis for my cloud forecast tonight.  South to
southwest flow tonight into Tuesday isn`t exactly a cold
only expecting lows in the 40s tonight.  Additionally there
should be a decent amount of insolation on Tuesday to go along with
the southerly flow.  MOS looks reasonable with highs well above
normal again in the upper 50s to mid 60s.


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

(Wednesday through Friday)

Still expect Wednesday through Saturday to be mainly dry.  Both the
GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that the upper low that will be
over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday morning will lift northeastward
through the Great Lakes and not bring any precipitation to the area.
In the meantime, zonal upper flow will setup at least through Friday
before the ECWMF and GFS begin showing diverging solutions to the
forecast over the weekend.

With polar cold front staying well south of the area during the
period and 850mb temperature staying around -5C, GEFS mean temps
support temperatures staying around normal values.

(Saturday through next Monday)

There continues to be great uncertainty with the forecast over the
weekend into early next week as the the ECMWF and the GFS are
showing different solutions.  The GFS/GFS ensemble has shown more
continuity with bringing a northern stream trough across the area
Saturday night and Sunday which would bring some light rain/snow to
the area. The ECMWF on the other hand has not shown as much run to
run consistency, with it bringing out a larger, colder system over
the weekend that would have the potential to produce more snow.
Given the consistency of the GFS, will lean more toward it`s
solution at this point.  Temperatures will continue to be close to
normal during the period.



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Quickly improving conditions this evng. Bulk of the precip has
pushes E of the terminals this aftn and is now confined to Ern
IL. Skies have cleared considerably behind the precip as well. There
may be a few lingering sprinkles of light SHRAs prior to the
passage of a cold front this evng. There were some TSTMs that had
dvlpd along this bndry late this aftn from near KCOU to KIRK and
on into IA but they have since dssptd. Winds will become SWrly for
seveeral hours after FROPA but should greadually come back around
to the S. Tue should be a quiet day with Sthrly winds aob 10kts
with just some mid clouds.


VFR fcst thru the prd. Cloud deck will clear right at the start
of the TAF with just some scttrd VFR clouds this evng. FROPA this
evng will turn winds to the SW for several hours overnight but
should come back around to the S by 12Z Tue.





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