Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 031214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE/ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL
KEEP GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A LITTLE INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS
MIDDLE 80S AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT AND CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
OUR REGION BY MONDAY WITH A WET PERIOD SHAPING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT WELCOME NEWS AS
AREA RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM
THE RECORD RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN JUNE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS AT
KCOU SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS MIX OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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