Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 200234

934 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.



.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.





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