Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 110829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
229 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2016

Relatively quiet day in store for the region as next system
approaches from the northwest. Could see some flurries or light
snow begin in far northeast Missouri late this afternoon.
Otherwise, a typical cold winter day with highs in the 20s and
30s.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2016

...Light Snow Expected This Evening...

Next shortwave will be diving southeast in a similar manner to
yesterday`s and provide the area with another round of light snow.
It appears that this snow will be a little later in its arrival with
the main window of accumulation occurring from 6 pm to Midnight.
Once again have about an inch, give or take a few tenths, of snow
accumulation forecast from northeast Missouri to southwest Illinois.
This includes the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area.

Snow should taper off after midnight from northwest to southeast,
with a few flurries possible Friday morning. Thereafter, a very
cold air mass builds into the region Friday night and Saturday.
Low temperatures below zero are certainly possible Saturday
morning across the northern CWA.

The arctic high pressure quickly moves east though and by
Saturday night we could already have a band of warm advection snow
racing across the CWA. Better chance of accumulating snow appears
to occur on Sunday, but to be honest, medium range model guidance
has been flip flopping all over the place with this system the
past five days and still hasn`t landed on a common solution. Best
to leave PoPs at a chance for the period in question and give it a
few more runs before trying to nail down specifics.

Warm up looks on tap next week as the pattern changes with highs in
the 50s and maybe even 60s!

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016

VFR ceilings with light easterly winds expected through the day on
Thursday. Another clipper system will dive southeast Thursday
evening bringing another round of snow into KUIN so have IFR
visbys late Thursday evening. KCOU is expected to be too far SW
and the metro terminals closer to the southwestern edge of the
light snow.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected heading into Thursday evening. Lambert
will be near southwestern edge of light snow coming in from the
northwest with the next clipper system. For now...have a VCSH
group indicating the possibility of light snow at the terminal.
Regardless...appears a period of MVFR ceilings is likely by late
Thursday night.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     29  22  36   9 /  10  70  20   5
Quincy          24  19  29   2 /  20  80  20   5
Columbia        31  24  38   7 /  10  20  10   5
Jefferson City  32  24  40   9 /  10  20   5   5
Salem           28  21  34   9 /   5  50  20   5
Farmington      32  21  41  10 /  10  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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