Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 212024

324 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.


.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon





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