Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 132001
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
301 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Remnant low from Irma to continue lifting northeast away from
region. In the meantime, clouds associated with it will be slow to
move out. Clouds on outer edges are more diurnal in nature and
should dissipate towards sunset. As for areas along and east of
Mississippi River, clouds will clear out late tonight. With light
winds, some concern about patchy fog development for areas that are
currently cloudy, so kept mention in. As for temperatures, with
lingering clouds and winds becoming light and southerly late, lows
will be a bit warmer, in the mid to upper 50s.

On Thursday, with surface ridge to our east, southerly winds to
return once again, allowing temperatures to warm up into the 80s,
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Byrd



.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

A relatively quiet weather pattern will give way to a more active
pattern this weekend. A cutoff low entering the California coast
along with a trough moving through the pacific northwest this
morning, will help drive the formation of a long wave trough over
the western two thirds of the country. This will lead to surface
cyclogensis  across southeast Colorado Friday into Saturday. It will
likely be a little breezy Friday afternoon and evening as the low to
the west deepens over the Plains. The approaching trough will result
in southwest flow and drive temperatures above climatological highs
on Friday and Saturday.


The low and associated weak cold front will approach the region on
Saturday. The front and attendant low pressure will move into the
area late Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms. The front
is expected to move just south of the region before moving north to
the  I-70 corridor as a warm front. Temperatures on Sunday and
Monday will be highly dependent on cloud and precipitation coverage.


The front will push back north Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible through Monday evening.  An upper level ridge
will build into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This will pull up
a warm airmass from the Gulf of Mexico allowing for temperatures to
climb back above climatological normals.



Kelly




&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Clouds associated with remnants of Irma will continue to slow lift
east away from region. Still have some MVFR cigs in STL metro
area, which should lift to VFR by 21z. Otherwise, skies to clear
out after 01z Thursday. Light north winds to become light and
variable overnight, before picking up from the southwest by midday
on Thursday.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Clouds associated with remnants of Irma will continue to slow lift
east away from region. Still have some MVFR cigs in STL metro
area, which should lift to VFR by 21z. Otherwise, skies to clear
out after 01z Thursday. Light north winds to become calm
overnight, before picking up from the southwest by 18z Thursday.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     61  87  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          57  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        57  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  56  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           58  84  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
Farmington      57  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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