Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 010438
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FADE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSH MORE SOUTHWARD AND STAY WEST OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. TOOK
REMAINING POPS OUT TONIGHT AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
PRIMARILY IN THE 60S OR NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

GOSSELIN

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRY TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVNG. ISLD
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN. ANYTHING
THAT DVLPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS SE NEB/WRN IA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO N
CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DSSPTNG. HAVE COVERED BOTH THREATS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES. WENT AOB THE
COOLEST MOS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS THE FACT
THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT KEEPING
RELATIVELY DRIER DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND HELPING TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS LIGHT.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROF TO
THE EAST HAS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEEKEND
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANES MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NOTHWEST FLOW, INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE,
BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI, AND THE GFS HANGING IT UP OVER THE
OZARKS.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS WET AND COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  93  75  94 /   5  10  10  20
QUINCY          65  91  71  89 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBIA        66  92  71  92 /   5  10  10  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  94  70  93 /   5  10  10   5
SALEM           65  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
FARMINGTON      63  92  69  92 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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