Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 262342

542 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.


.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Surface low located midway between KCOU and KSTL at 23z will move
southeastward tonight into the TN Valley region. Its initial
passage to the east this evening will actually bring warmer air
briefly into the St. Louis region for a short period early this
evening before increasing northwest winds bring in more colder
air. What this means for the St. Louis area terminals is that they
could see rain, snow, and a mix this evening. Flight conditions
will remain IFR tonight where they currently exist at KUIN and
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, while they should lower to IFR at UIN. Sometime
during the period from late tonight into mid Thursday morning
there should be improvement to MVFR, and to VFR from late morning
into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will persist through early Thursday morning
with imrovement to MVFR after 12z, and to VFR around midday. A mix
of precipitation types are expected this evening which could be
all rain, all snow, or a mix of rain/snow.





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