000
FXUS63 KLSX 042301
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

Look for continued dry and quiet weather tonight due to the
influence of a departing high pressure center. Overnight lows should
range from the mid teens to the mid 20s. The coldest lows are
expected over the southeast CWA because of lighter winds near the
surface ridge axis as well as residual snow/ice cover.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

A weak cold front will sag southward through our area on Wednesday
as a surface ridge of high pressure builds southward into the
Great Lakes region. High temperatures may be a little cooler
compared to today/Tuesday across northeast MO and west central IL.
More cloud cover is also expected, particularly across the
northern portion of the forecast area which will limit solar
insolation. There may be light precipitation as well across parts
of northeast MO and west central IL ahead of shortwaves dropping
southeastward through the region, and where low-mid level
moisture/cloudiness will be more plentiful. It appears that the
temperature profile in this area will be cold enough that any
precipitation should fall in the form of snow. As an upper level
trough deepens over our area Wednesday night there may be patchy
light precipitation across much of our region, although moisture
will be quite limited and most of the models shift there qpf well
south of our forecast area where the upper level trough will
intercept more moisture and an inverted surface trough will
develop. Dry and tranquil weather for Thursday through Friday as
the upper level trough shifts e-se of our area and a surface ridge
moves slowly southeastward through the region. Pronounced warming
for Friday with rising upper level heights and as low
level/surface winds become swly. Highs on Friday should be close
to seasonal normals, at least across central MO. The GFS MOS
guidance appears too cool for highs on Friday. The next chance of
precipitation will occur late Friday night through Saturday
evening as a cold front drops southeastward through the region. An
upper level trough moving slowly eastward through the southern
Plains may provide additional moisture and the potential for
overrunning type precipitation north of the surface front.
Warmer, possibly above normal temperatures for Monday, especially
if the warmer ECMWF model solution verifies. Although the models
drop another cold front south southeastward through our area
Monday night they generate little in any qpf associated with this
frontal passage Monday night and Tuesday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 456 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

VFR through the period at KCOU. VFR for at least the first 6-12
hours at KUIN and probably longer. Light snow might clip KUIN
tomorrow, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this
time. Expect increasing coverage of mid and high clouds at both
terminals. Initially southerly winds will back and become easterly
to northeasterly by the end of the TAF period in response to an
approaching low pressure system.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR through the period with
increasing coverage of mid and high clouds.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX