Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 301156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLOUDINESS AT TAF SITES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMATTERING OF FAIR-
WEATHER CU THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH BASES AOA
4KFT...WITH THESE CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS IMPACTING
AREAS SOUTH OF I70 CORRIDOR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: GENRALLY CLEAR, WITH A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CU
WITH BASES AOA 4KFT FORMING IN THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. THESE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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