Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 270541

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1141 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Issued at 835 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Looks like another November evening filled with fog/stratus
challenges. Fog/stratus from this morning never did mix out and
continues to affect portions of southern MO. Latest satellite
imagery shows this area of fog/stratus expanding over the past
couple of hours. This expansion to the north/northeast should
continue through the overnight hours as low-level wind fields turn
more southerly. The main forecast challenge will be deciphering
whether this low-level moisture manifests itself more as fog or
more as stratus as it lifts/develops northeast.

Latest obs and webcams down near Springfield, MO show pretty
dense fog, but they remain a bit closer to the surface ridge axis.
Further to the north, the pressure gradient increases a bit which
would tend to favor a bit more mixed boundary layer resulting more
in stratus (a few hundred feet off the ground) than fog. The
latest hi-res guidance, however, is pretty aggressive with fog
development across much of the CWA overnight and many of these
guidance members develop fog well into IL. Will continue to
monitor obs as this moisture spreads into the region as a Dense
Fog Advisory could be needed should fog become more prevalent than
the more favored stratus scenario.



.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Primary concern for tonight is the potential for fog and stratus
again.  There is still one area of persistent stratus over south
central Missouri this afternoon.  It`s possible that this stratus
will expand northward after sunset.  Forecast soundings across the
area are hinting at this with boundary layer dewpoint depressions
decreasing to zero or near zero at various times through the night
depending on which model is viewed.  Boundary layer wind is higher
tonight than last think fog is less likely than stratus.
Aforementioned boundary layer wind may also mix in drier air from
aloft to keep the stratus from do not have a whole
lot of confidence in either occurring.  Will tell the evening shift
to keep an eye out and keep their fingers on the "amendment" button.

Wind will be increasing on Sunday as low pressure strengthens over
the Great Plains.  Strong low level moisture convergence on a 40-
50kt 850mb jet should spread showers into northern and central
Missouri by the afternoon.  Normally, would lean toward warmest
guidance for temperatures with strong warm advection pattern, but
with increasing clouds and afternoon showers...expect temperatures
to top out close to today`s readings in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Moisture convergence is maximized across eastern Missouri and
Illinois between 00Z and 06Z tomorrow evening. A minimal amount
of instability is forecast and therefore only a slight
chance/isolated mention of thunder is retained with predominant
rain showers in the forecast for Sunday evening.

The storm system is expected to deepen and occlude across the
northern Plains and upper Midwest through Tuesday. This will result
in deep southwest flow across the lower Missouri and middle
Mississippi River Valleys and temperatures well above normal. Local
conditional climatology suggesting high temperatures in the upper
50s to lower 60s areawide through Monday.

Appears that the heaviest precipitation with the approaching trough
Monday and Monday night will be across the southeastern half of the
CWA. It is here that the best signal for moisture convergence and
upper level divergence is shown by model guidance. Have once again
retained slight chance/chance of thunder for these time periods, but
believe the predominant weather will be rain showers.

Given the occluding nature of the system, the actual cold front
really doesn`t arrive until Tuesday afternoon. This should result in
in one more day of above normal temperatures and it actually could
be the warmest since the low clouds should have cleared to the east.

Cold advection takes hold the remainder of the work week as the deep
trough of low pressure slowly slides across the center of the CONUS
and the surface ridge remains anchored from the northern Plains to
the lower Mississippi River Valley.  This will result in
temperatures returning to normal and a dry forecast.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

IFR conditions likely at all sites tonight as low stratus advects
into the region. Stratus has now made it into COU, and will
continue to move northeast tonight. It has struggled a bit in the
past hour or so likely due to downsloping off the Ozarks, but
should continue to fill in through the early morning hours. Have
continued to favor more stratus than fog given the tightening
surface pressure gradient, although some fog still remains
possible. Have gone prevailing IFR, but some localized LIFR will
be possible as well especially at COU/SUS.

Otherwise, stratus should mix out by the mid to late morning
hours, leading to mainly VFR conditions by Sunday afternoon.
Showers will move in from the west late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening, along with the potential for some MVFR cigs.
Southerly winds will also become gusty late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening, with gusts in excess of 20-25 knots likely.

IFR stratus deck continues to slowly build northeast. The better
coverage remains off to the west and it has struggled to push
northeast thus far likely due to some downsloping. However,
guidance is in general agreement the stratus will fill in over the
next few hours, thus will continue with an IFR forecast. Expect
most cigs to be in the FL006-FL009 range, but a brief dip into
LIFR isn`t out of the question. Otherwise, stratus will mix out by
late Sunday morning with VFR conditions commencing. Southerly
winds will gust to around 25 knots late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening as a few showers approach the terminal.





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