Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 290511

1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.





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