Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 042344

644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Shortwave rotating around upper low parked over Great Lakes region.
This is helping to trigger isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region. The best chances will be east and northeast of
our forecast area, but could see some pop up mainly over the Ozarks
and into southeast Missouri as well as STL metro area through
sunset. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions to persist overnight
with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s most locations.


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect hot and dry pattern to persist across the region
through at least Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, could see heat indicies approach 100 at
times, both days.

Models continue to be a bit slower with the frontal boundary early
next week. GFS doesn`t have front completely move through til next
Thursday. For now went with a blend and expect front to move into
area early Monday morning and stall out north of I-70. Best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will be over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois through Tuesday. Will
see additional rounds of activity Tuesday night through Thursday
as boundary slowly oozes south finally exiting forecast area by
Thursday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud
cover and precipitation. For now have highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Monday and 80s on Tuesday.

Cooler air to filter in beginning Wednesday with highs only in the
70s by next Friday and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR with southerly to southwesterly winds, occasional diurnal cu,
and perhaps some passing cirrus.





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